3/10/07 FCST: OK/TX/AR/KS/MO

  • Thread starter Michael O'Keeffe
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Michael O'Keeffe

Severe weater may be a possibility this Saturday across the S Plains. Moisture and instabilty may be suffient enough for some severe convection especially across S OK/N TX. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s and instabilty to 1000j/kg will be in place. A shortwave trough and an associated cold front may be able to intiate storms across S KS south to N TX. Weak wind fields doesn't excite me, but you know things can change 5 days out. May be something to watch closely as stated by the Tulsa AFD.
While this is a bit far out, it bears some close examination as the week wears on. It seems there's quite a few variables that still need to happen for this to be an event at all; I'll get a bit more interested if that ridge diminishes and we see some gulf moisture return after mid-week or so, and again those lazy winds may be the overall show stopper.
I've looked over things and it appears that the threat would be from elevated hailers. The depth of moisture is suspect :confused: . Given this type of pattern indicated on the GFS on the latest runs, it looks like a favorable setup for elevated hailers across NE Oklahoma, far SE Kansas, SW/SC Missouri, NW (and maybe WC/NC) Arkansas. I'll certainly be watching things and posting forecast updates on Vortex Times as the week presses on and the models throw some of the usual curve balls.
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Honestly im not impressed at all by this setup. To me the main threat area would be across south central oklahoma and northern texas, and the only threats I see would be from marginal hail and possibly a 60mph wind gust or two.
After looking at the 18z GFS im a little more encouraged about saturday's prospects. The 850 TD are a lot more promising when compared to the 12z. Upper air speeds are not that impressive, however there is nice turning with height from the sfc up..... I also like the look of the sfc features near the Gulf allowing for more moisture return....
Well - I tried to forecast for this system......but I'm afraid I just can't get excited about northwesterly flow aloft in March.


Let's hope this isn't a portent of things to come for the main portion of spring...

After looking over the OOz run last night and the 06z run this morning even though 120-114 hrs out, there just is not the presence of the large scale features avaliable for severe weather this time of the year. Even the ingredients that change from run to run (850 RH) are not as prevelant as they were on the 18z run yesterday..... anyway a bit of hope tofwards the end of the GFS period (180hrs) is that the ridge in the west starts to break down and goes almost completely zonal by day 8.. Lets hope that this trend continues beyond this forecast period.........
Maybe i should stop looking at model runs all together, every time i look at them (00z last night, 06z this morning) they look like crap and when i give up on it they pop right back up there.
I guess ill go look at the 12z and see what all the "fuss" is about!!!
The best combination of moisture and instability seems to be along the I40 corridor from Shamrock to Weatherford. SBCAPE in that region will be up to 1500 j/kg and moisture will be in the low-upper 50s, moderate to strong wind shear may also be in place across the region. Cloud cover and weak upper level winds are the main concerns now. May be interesting if this can pan out.After the February 28 tornadoes I'm pumped to see more convection!!
Just a glance to NAM, but Saturday sfc and 850 flow sux. There is no shortwave interaction either even though just a bit of cape and reasonable dewpoints are developed in east Tx.

IMO Sunday is a much better potential day (though still limited in coverage and intensity) near the Red north of DFW. Still weak sfc winds, but stronger 850's, and there is mid level wave near area by 0z with a spot of cape near Red to intersect.