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2025-05-17 EVENT: OK/TX/KS/AR

Warren Faidley

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Joined
May 7, 2006
Messages
2,688
Location
Mos Isley Space Port
Been watching this classic "pre-day" / sneak attack event for about a week. SPC finally dropped a slight and 2% tornado risk yesterday. I believe this may be upped to a 5% in later outlooks.

An approaching shortwave, front dropping down from KS, well-defined dryline and manageable CIN will do the job. HRRR places updraft helicity in the area after 5pm.
 
I am targeting northwest OK (will refine target later). Problem is I land in DFW this morning at 11:30 so just hope I can get up there in time. It’s going to be tight and hoping the 12Z HRRR run is right in showing initiation at ~5pm. Hopefully it holds off a little longer and/or boundary placement means I won’t have to get quite as far north and west.
 
Will definitely have to watch frontal placement during the day. HRRR was also closer to I-40 than Woodward. 12Z NAM is slightly south as well* really will depend how much advects N thru the day. 70 dews currently in S Oklahoma.
 
Nice wave showing up in S OK at 700mb. Can see evidence on the NAM of big storms blowing up down there and RAP seems to support. Not a lot of LLJ but I think I am going to try and jump on anything along the US70 corridor tonight.
 
Whats evident out there right now is the environment in Nrn OK right now, compared to down south, not sure how far north this line is going to travel in the next 2-3hrs.
1747519224334.png

but a beautiful presentation on METSAT on the storm IVO Lindsay OK.

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3CAPE and Vorticity lining up well @ 21Z

1747520283491.png

Probably a wall cloud on this storm... velocities at the time of this image were still not too strong. IVO White bead, OK

1747520663377.png
 
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