Jeff House
Supporter
Mid-South is my greatest focus for Sunday. Front will stretch from low press likely in Kentucky down to Texas. Upper-level wind will be from nearly straight west vs the usual southwest or SSW that we often see in the South. Low levels look a little veered off, but just enough turning may be evident given the straight from the west upper levels.
Instability looks greatest in TX and LA but the low-level wind fields look better in the Mid-South. Surface low should be up there too. LLJ starts to lift toward the Mid-South on Sunday, but it does linger down in LA.
Still I believe that surface boundaries will better enhance low-level SRH in the Mid-South. Instability will be a challenge. However any early showers would add boundaries, hopefully south of the warm front. Said boundaries should intersect a diagonal advancing surface trough. Chasers want a pre-frontal trough ahead of that cold front. It is not explicitly progged yet, but we're Day 3.
Sunday is something to watch, but I'm leaning against an outing. Will monitor for any uptrend or improvement in surface features. Can't imagine anything greater than ENH, but we need a better surface focus.
Instability looks greatest in TX and LA but the low-level wind fields look better in the Mid-South. Surface low should be up there too. LLJ starts to lift toward the Mid-South on Sunday, but it does linger down in LA.
Still I believe that surface boundaries will better enhance low-level SRH in the Mid-South. Instability will be a challenge. However any early showers would add boundaries, hopefully south of the warm front. Said boundaries should intersect a diagonal advancing surface trough. Chasers want a pre-frontal trough ahead of that cold front. It is not explicitly progged yet, but we're Day 3.
Sunday is something to watch, but I'm leaning against an outing. Will monitor for any uptrend or improvement in surface features. Can't imagine anything greater than ENH, but we need a better surface focus.
