2024-06-17 EVENT: NE/SD/MN

[Ben Holcomb]

The SPC is not seemingly very bullish on tomorrow, but the 15z RAP from today is showing mid 70 degree dewpoints across southern Minnesota and Eastern South Dakota tomorrow afternoon. RAP is showing some overlap of the warm sector with the jet overhead, especially in Southern MN and absolutely skyrocketing the STP values in West Central and Southwest Minnesota and Eastern SD.



Nadocast has also been hot, showing MN and Western Nebraska areas. I'm not a fan of adding it, but it sure nailed yesterday and Silverton day and has been consistent on other days.



I got all the way back to Norman about 1 last night and thinking of making another trek northbound starting tonight to get into position. Could be a big day tomorrow. I don't want to miss that inevitable shelf after driving all those hours.

**EDIT**

Wanted to add that tomorrow has a 986mb low, deepening as we continue throughout the day. I believe June 17, 2010 was 988mb low. I swore I'd never miss another sub990mb low this late in June again.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The Euro and NAM have the shortwave coming through early and departing by midafternoon, presumably with subsidence over SE SD/SW MN. The RAP and GFS show the same, but have a new jet max developing upstream or overhead by early afternoon - yet with no storm. All show H7 temps warming through the day with 13-15C over the primary target by 00z - that's going to be a tough one to crack. 6/17/10 and 6/24/03 had H7 temps around 10C (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/)

I'm trying to find examples of big events with a cap that strong, not having any luck. Then again, I did say that about cold front supercells on the morning of 5/21.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This day has conspired against anyone living more than 3 hours away from it. Has there ever been such a consistent model signal for days that reversed so dramatically over a single CAM run within a couple of hours of initiation? HRRR and RAP showing H7 temps cooling to under 14C to allow a solitary monster to develop in the Sandhills in essentially a perfect environment, too late for anyone more than 3 hours away to get to now. If that verifies, that's got to be the most epic model troll I've ever seen and a day reserved exclusively for the able-to-chase-everything crowd.

 

[Ryan Schwartz]

The models were just re-living June 17, 2010 for a moment.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Alternatively, the recent runs of the HRRR are trolling people that are already out here into thinking there's gonna be a storm. I can't really say it's looking all that great out here yet.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yeah, I think the HRRR may indeed be trolling. The warm front and so-far-not-very-agitated cumulus right on the dryline is lifting into Cherry County now, so the storm of the day may end up there with no roads to get close or even stay with the storm at all. Some towers are trying to go south of I-80. Not an easy day even if you're there, it appears.

Convection has initiated in NW Kansas where mesoanalysis shows 16C at 700mb, so I guess it's not out of the question that the Sandhills could go.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Looks like the cap will hold. I'm glad of that outcome since I am already back home. Hit a deer on I-135 near McPherson last night. Surprisingly, car was still drive-able to get home but it's likely a total loss.