2024-06-13 EVENT: NE/KS/MO/IA/IL

[Ben Holcomb]

It appears the jet stream riding over the dominant ridge will provide some good zonal to northwest flow in the area to the north and east of kansas city. A cold front sinking south will be the main focus for thunderstorms, however, NAM and RAP soundings on the 00Z and 03Z run respectively are showing some potential for supercells. Anything that can remain discrete will have definite tornado potential with an extremely buoyant airmass in place.

Looks like this might be the first of a string of a few chase days.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The CAM signal for a few hours of intense supercells has been pretty consistent. Low-level flow is weak, so it looks like this will be primarily a structure show. Of note is that none of the CAMs picked up on the early morning storms in northern Missouri that only just dissipated. I'm not sure why that is, possibly an early wave, one that may leave some subsidence in its wake. With the weak low-level flow, it looks like pooling (or maybe ET?) along the front will be the main driver of deeper moisture. This one is within my extended home range, but I'm not feeling a huge pull to go after it.