2024-05-20 EVENT: CO/NE/KS

[Matt Hunt]

Eventually today, there will be upslope flow into northeastern Colorado, with dewpoints approaching 50. Marginal CAPE values early, but HRRR progs near 2000 J/kg near the CO/NE state line by 00z. 500mb winds remain fairly weak until after 00z. The timing of all of this is my biggest concern, as everything arrives rather late in the day.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The CAM-indicated storms should hit the deeper moisture at the Nebraska border at about the same time the upper support starts ramping up, which as you say, could be just before sunset - but the storm should be in progress before then, and upslope can make things happen at that time. A pretty obvious target during peak season with one storm and limited roads may mean traffic issues. No real secondary targets to speak of either. Departing Russell, Kansas now and will make my way west and north to around Akron.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Planning to head to the same general area (Yukon/Otis). Good agreement on a nice discrete cell among HRRR, WFR-ARW and NAM3k. Should be about 4 hours from Hays where I am at the moment, but should have plenty of time by the time any cells that initiate reach maturity and get into the better moisture. Will have to adjust based on surface boundary and will be interesting to see how much moisture can advect into the area; it's still quite dry right now, even for those parts.

Chasing today may mean giving up on Iowa tomorrow, unless there is a reasonable target in Nebraska that is not at 10am. Overall I'm not too excited about tomorrow anyway, but it's hard not to worry it will be another April 26.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Sitting near Strasburg, not liking the evolution so far. The current activity has been anemic with tiny bases and no lightning, and the anvils overspreading the downstream environment have effectively ended the interval of insolation for points northeast. I'm just waiting to see which one of these is going to emerge as the storm of the day, if any do. The areas to the southeast that are getting sun hopefully should help our inflow here as that air is advected northwest. The area of cirrus visible on satellite approaching us might be some upper support that will give these things a boost, so we'll see.

Meanwhile, the secondary target emerging on CAMs along the front to the east in central/eastern Nebraska is not bad looking, but it's out of reach now.

 

[Levi Mol]

North of me KGRR Tornado Warning #13

 

[JamesCaruso]

Sitting in Akron, similar to Dan waiting for one storm to dominate. I’m not as worried about the downstream effect of the anvils. Maybe I should be, but I’m thinking with storms already in progress, the axis of higher dewpoints taking a trajectory through Yuma, Akron and Fort Morgan, and 0-3km CAPE of 50 in Akron and 75 east to the KS border, we should still be able to get the job done. Just feels like the storms are taking forever to emerge out over the Plains.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Storm at Akron wrapped up nicely and might have produced. Couldn't stay close because every part of the storm was filled with large hail that made viewing impossible. My hail guards saved several of my windows as I was in windblown golfballs for about 45 minutes straight, including far east into the forward flank. I'm waiting for the storm's core to cross the highway and then am going to start the trek east for tomorrow.

 

[John Farley]

This setup is looking like yet another that will produce mainly after dark. So many like that this year.

 

[Robbi Drake]

This setup is looking like yet another that will produce mainly after dark. So many like that this year.

Hearing rumors that some chasers saw a tornado--brief and weak-- but seen by several chasers in downtown Grand Island Ne this evening.