2023-04-19 EVENT: OK/KS

[Andy Wehrle]

Not much to say except lots of pretty colors on the NAM/3KM NAM EHI maps at FH060, but the model shows the area remaining capped at that point and SPC seems to agree (Day 3 outlook doesn't even mention the T word or their favorite euphemism for it - "all hazards"- despite the fact that it was done by Broyles, historically notorious for his meme-worthy bullishness).

That said, it (sadly) looks like the only game in town in the Plains for a while.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Based on the 18Z NAM, the cap looks somewhat breakable over southern KS down to central OK...soundings at FH054 have some CINH, but the visible inversion on the SKEW-T is very slight to non-existent...however the 18Z 3KM NAM is still reluctant to develop any warm-sector convection.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Looking at the 12z HREF, it appears there might be a 700 mb shortwave coming across C. OK after 00z.

A few of the CAMs are bullish on a couple renegade Supercells developing.

Also of note is several hi-res models move the dryline much further east (Hwy 81 corridor).

Should these verify, this would put the I-35 corridor in play in Central and Southern OK.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Wowza... just did a few quick soundings from the 17z HRRR for 02z. That LLJ gets cranking. If we can get one or two discrete cells these things could pose the risk for a significant tornado after sunset as the LCLs come down and the LLJ ramps up. Pulled one near a simulated storm that had an STP > 12. Area was central oklahoma

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Good first chase. Got on a tornadic supercell in Chase/Lyon County KS. Lone supercell, in a road network I know like the back of my hand, was too hard to pass up even in the dark. Ill put a report together on it in the AM. I am headed to bed.