2021 Severe Watch Contest

[Jeff Duda]

We are running an additional contest for the 2021 severe weather season.

In this contest, the goal is to predict how many total Severe Thunderstorm AND Tornado Watches will be issued in 2021.

The "Watches" page on the SPC website (Storm Prediction Center - Current Convective Watches) will be used as the verifying value, under the header "Most recently issued watch #????" Whatever number appears there as of 0000 UTC 01 January 2022 will be the winning number.

We are using "The Price is Right" style rules -- whoever is closest without going over wins.

The winner will receive a $100 gift card on Amazon.

The deadline for contest entry is 0000 UTC 15 February 2021.

Will you hear this?

Or this?

Only one way to find out. Play today!

 

[Michael Waits]

#0540

 

[Verne Carlson]

#0521

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

#0610

 

[Sarah B. Wood]

#600

 

[TJKLECKNER]

#499

 

[Caleb O.]

#0597

 

[J West]

#0626

 

[Noah Anderson]

#0568

 

[rcartwright]

#0828

 

[Mikayla Norris]

#0518

 

[Shane Young]

#0649

 

[Jeff Duda]

About 36 hours to go. Get your guesses in!

 

[Paul Lemery]

#635

 

[Ben Kossow]

#650

 

[Michael Towers]

#001

 

[Jeff Duda]

Good luck to everyone! As of the closing of the contest entries SPC was at watch #0006, so one person is dominatingly in the lead right now, but we shall see if that survives.

Good thinking, Michael!

 

[Jeff Duda]

As of August 8th we are at 416 watches as per the SPC's Watch site.

Only one person has gone over so far, and there are several bets that look very good. I'd say if your bet is in the ~500 to ~600 range, you're in really good shape. But we still have just under four months to go. The late summer and fall season could be very quiet or very busy. And there's always November and December.

 

[Jeff Duda]

According to the data I can see on the SPC website, the final watch of 2021 was Severe Thunderstorm Watch #572 which was issued at 1805 UTC on Thursday, 30 December.

There were some very close guesses (less than 50 under), but the winner is @Noah Anderson, who guessed 568 watches, and therefore was only short by four watches!

Such a great entry, Noah! Congratulations! Keep an eye on your private messages over the next several days as we prepare your gift! Thanks to all who played, too. We may do similar games in 2022 as well.

 

[Noah Anderson]

According to the data I can see on the SPC website, the final watch of 2021 was Severe Thunderstorm Watch #572 which was issued at 1805 UTC on Thursday, 30 December.

There were some very close guesses (less than 50 under), but the winner is @Noah Anderson, who guessed 568 watches, and therefore was only short by four watches!

Such a great entry, Noah! Congratulations! Keep an eye on your private messages over the next several days as we prepare your gift! Thanks to all who played, too. We may do similar games in 2022 as well.

Amazing! I can say that a LOT of complex statistical analysis went into my guess; along the lines of "ehhh this seems good," plus a sanity check from my magic 8 ball.