Try as I might, I can't find a lot to like about Wednesday, at least thus far. My sense is that an historically poor first third of May has distorted some perceptions of what a respectable setup looks like this time of year on the Plains (and no, I don't mean an outbreak or slam-dunk big tornado day; just a setup where sustained, high-quality supercells featuring some tornado potential are likely).
To me, Wednesday looks more like an event I'd get excited for in March as a chance to dust the gear off. Forecast bulk shear magnitude is marginal at best for sustained supercells, and at least until 00z-01z, low-level shear also appears poor. Most NWP guidance suggests CI on the dryline during the 20-22z timeframe, which I always dislike seeing several hours before decent hodographs are in place. Sufficient moisture for tornado-supportive LCLs is in doubt, with most (though not all) guidance depicting a diffuse moisture gradient where mid-upper 60s dews only exist several counties off the dryline. All these ingredients point to storms birthing and even maturing in a poor environment.
Watching the 00z CAMs post this evening, there is unanimous agreement in outflow-dominant storms with only transient, spotty values of meaningful UH, and large composite cold pools developing by 00z Thu. This scenario has also been hinted at in the QPF output of the ECMWF for several runs. CAM solutions are not the answer to every forecasting problem, but when their depictions of convective mode look this nasty across various dynamical cores and physics parameterizations, I take note.
It's May, and high CAPE will be in place along a dryline, so there's certainly the potential for a tornado or two... but they likely will be
very hard-earned if they indeed occur. I won't pretend I'm not chasing, given the proximity, but I've just had such bad luck over the years with similarly flawed setups in this W OK-C KS longitudinal band of the SGP, especially when moisture is less than outstanding.
