2020-03-03 EVENT: AR/LA/MS/AL

[Dan Robinson]

Dust off your forecasting skills as chase season kicks off with the first big wave of meteorological spring through Dixie Alley on Tuesday the 3rd. The GFS depicts a positively-tilted trough ejecting with a broad 90kt+ jet overspreading the region on Tuesday afternoon-night. Large low-level hodographs are featured in the warm sector, yielding 0-3km SRH values of 450 within a zone of surface dewpoints exceeding 65F as far north as Tupelo. Characteristic cloud cover will sock in the warm sector throughout the event, this along with poor lapse rates with be the main mitigating factors. The Euro is currently slower and farther south with the ejecting wave, centering a lesser threat area farther west on Monday.

 

[Dan Robinson]

And just like that, it's gone - the NAM and GFS come in line with the Euro on a slower and much farther-south wave, limiting moisture return before the cold front sweeps everything south and east. The main focus of the event is now much farther south along the Gulf coast.