2019-03-29 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[James Gustina]

Very interested to see the evolution of this given last night's 00Z runs. The 00Z GFS slowed the southward surge of a cold front out of Kansas noticeably and is now painting a corridor of low-60 degree dewpoints from a triple point in N OK/S KS down a dryline into N TX. The bulk of the trough is currently progged to go negative as it ejects out of the Four Corners region earlier in the morning with surface cyclogenesis occurring in SE Colorado before the surface low shifting southeast into the Panhandle region. Two of the biggest caveats I've noticed so far after a quick look over are:

• 35 knot H85 winds out of the due southwest bringing a stout cap and some dry air aloft into play where we may struggle to hit 60F dewpoints (and possible shear issues as well).
• A slightly earlier ejection of the trough/jet streak could push this well into the jungles

Obviously, we're still 4 days out and the potential issues with moisture and capping will not be resolved most likely until the night before but something to watch nevertheless.

 

[Russ Conlon]

NAM is online and shows some significant variance with GFS solutions, particularly much more aggressive undercutting cold front being pushed southward by high pressure in the Dakotas. Placement of triple point also varies greatly. Eastward progression of dryline hints at dry air expelling and affecting dew points east of boundry. Pretty messy to forecast to say the least.