You're not gonna get a high risk out of anything next week. Sorry, lol.
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- Science and Storm Chasing
- Advanced weather & chasing
2018 Tornadoes, High Risk, Contest Rules and Ideas
- Thread starter Mark Blue
- Start date
Brandon Centeno
EF1
Closer than most
As in: at least my guess has high-end potential lol. Most other guesses didn't even have a marginal lol
JF Massicotte
EF3
You guys should hold a bet on that, right now.
Update: As of May 4th, 20 of the 37 predictions include a high risk that has been too early, and an additional 5 (which predicted the first high risk within the next week) will almost certainly verify also as too early.
It's looking good for those who went later than mid-May for the first high risk...
Alex Elmore
EF2
I'd like to add that in general, it's also looking good for those of us who said there wouldn't be a high risk. Not that I'm rooting against the season being good...
Update: Only one person who predicted there would actually be a High Risk hasn't yet "busted" on the date of the first high risk. So if you were the one person who selected the June date for the first High Risk or the November date, you two are basically the only two that can win that category unless there are no High Risks. And honestly, at this point, the chances of "no high risks" seems to be substantial, although all it would take would be one big fall event to bust that, too. If I were to do a fivethirtyeight-style analysis of the probabilities, I would say the person predicting the November High Risk has the greatest probability at this moment of winning the category.
As far as counts go, most predictions were for a below-normal season, so most predictions are still well within uncertainty bounds. But if you went for the low end of the distribution (especially below 1000 tornadoes), you should be feeling pretty good at this point.
I MacDaniel
EF0
Well, might wait and see what happens in November (and Dec?). Lower chance though but there were a few high risks issued in both months since 2000.
Update: at this point it seems rather improbable that a high risk is coming, so that leaves 5 people who are going to score pretty well in that category. The inflation adjusted tornado count stands at 897. I'm sure that will increase some throughout the rest of the year, but it's looking like there are three people who will be competing for the win. These three people went with "no high risk" and a tornado count of 875, 950, and 967.
Mark, here are the figures I claimed I could produce back in March, but only just now got around to doing:
This one adjusts yearly tornado counts for the increase over time due to better reporting:
This is just a histogram form of the above data:
confirming that the standard deviation of the adjusted yearly counts is ~200, which would have been my suggestion for a tornado count error that would be comparable to being off on the "high risk" category (if you chose to score it that way). So conceivably, someone who went with a high risk could win by being much closer to the actual tornado count than someone who went with "no high risk" but was significantly off on the count.
It's up to you how you want to weight that, though.Edited...
After reading yesterday’s post again if there are 3 people who guessed no high risk and it’s all about count now then the 3 who are left should be the last ones standing for the prize based on count. Unless a high risk pops up between now and the end of the year, which would be next to impossible.
I may have masked this in my previous posts, but my point was to ask if you wanted to consider the fact that there are some contestants who did go with a high risk, but who also predicted tornado counts that are very close to the current actual counts. Thus someone who went with a high risk may end up being closer in total tornado count than the closest of the three who went with "no high risk. That will be the harder choice to distinguish between.
In other words, I don't think that the winner must necessarily be someone who also went with "no high risk".If someone went high risk and has a close tornado count, we should probably deduct a standard number of points IF the year ends with no high risks being issued.
The contestant with the lowest score would be the winner or so it would seem.
For tornado counts I believe we should just count the number of days from the final number, regardless of whether the guess is over or under, so we don’t have negative and positive numbers. I’m really leaving a lot up to you because of your mathematics background. Did you have ideas that are way different than the above?Similar threads
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