2018-12-27 MO/IA

[Ethan Schisler]

Kind of a sleeper setup appears to take shape tomorrow afternoon across Northern Missouri into perhaps Southern Iowa. It all seems really depends on whether we get that clear slot in here from the west or not.

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NAM NEST shows the possibility this does occur during late morning/early afternoon with storms initiating in North Central MO by late afternoon. The long range HRRR is also liking this solution with albeit better instability (values over 500j/kg) and even some sig tor of 1-2 across Northern MO from 20z to 00z.

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Storm motion will be rapid to the northeast with bulk strong shear values in excess of 60 knots and 500mb wind fields at almost 100 knots. It's all going to come down to instability (and moisture),

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I think on this event and whether storms can sustain themselves in a high shear environment, but I do think the potential is there for an isolated tornado or two given everything I see on the latest runs.

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My target would be from Macon down to Marshall, MO tomorrow. I'll be out the door early if I decide to chase. Which I will given the late date in the year and if the potential remains tomorrow morning.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

Well this day is looking to be a total wash out. Clouds are socked in across the region as of 11am. The clearing is occurring in northeast kansas and southeast nebraska, but I think these storms will form behind the front and the best instability displaced to the east. i've decided not to chase this setup due to the distance it has moved (further west) and extremely low confidence in anything more than regular thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat. Shear profiles from the surface up to about 700mb look fairly unidirectional further west as well, flow is pretty meridional at 500mb.

Sort of reminds me of April 13th earlier this year.