Dean Baron
Supporter
Saturday looks like it could be an interesting day across the northern plains. The next several days will feature a stationary front oriented roughly southwest to northeast across SD, MN,and into WI with easterly/northeasterly winds north of the front and southeasterly winds south of it. Strong heating and plentiful moisture should also be in place south of the front which will contribute to strong instability along and south of the front.
Helicity values are quite nice along the front, especially in Western MN and eastern SD Saturday evening. Models also show 500 mb winds around 30-35 knots. Not great, but it should be enough with the strong instability that is forecasted.
This is all dependent on morning convection not wrecking havoc on the atmosphere and quick recovery after it moves out in the morning. Assuming that happens, the biggest concern I have is it looks like the cap could potentially win out. The current 12z 3km NAM does break out precip by 00z in western MN and eastern SD. However, it the 12z NAM lid strength remains quite strong in this area so there is conflicting agreement on the likelihood of storms actually firing. Regardless, if a storm can break the cap it will be in a pretty good environment. Storm motions and the orientation of the front look like they will also be favorable with storms moving east/east northeast along the boundary.
June 17th is (at least anecdotally) peak severe season is in Minnesota and it looks like this weekend could fit right into that.
Lastly, here is a forecast sounding for 00z Sunday based on the 12z NAM. Not bad.
Helicity values are quite nice along the front, especially in Western MN and eastern SD Saturday evening. Models also show 500 mb winds around 30-35 knots. Not great, but it should be enough with the strong instability that is forecasted.
This is all dependent on morning convection not wrecking havoc on the atmosphere and quick recovery after it moves out in the morning. Assuming that happens, the biggest concern I have is it looks like the cap could potentially win out. The current 12z 3km NAM does break out precip by 00z in western MN and eastern SD. However, it the 12z NAM lid strength remains quite strong in this area so there is conflicting agreement on the likelihood of storms actually firing. Regardless, if a storm can break the cap it will be in a pretty good environment. Storm motions and the orientation of the front look like they will also be favorable with storms moving east/east northeast along the boundary.
June 17th is (at least anecdotally) peak severe season is in Minnesota and it looks like this weekend could fit right into that.
Lastly, here is a forecast sounding for 00z Sunday based on the 12z NAM. Not bad.
