Mike Marz
EF3
As of right now it appears that a pretty marginal event may be on tap for this upcoming Sunday across central portions of the country. However marginal it may appear at the moment (at least in terms of tornadic potential), I thought it would be good to start a thread and get smarter minds than mine chiming in on the setup. According to the NAM at 12z and 18z today, we should have double 500mb jet maxes approaching the target area from the southwest by Sunday morning. Dewpoints on the morning of look to be somewhere from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees anywhere from north OK through KS into parts of NE/IA. By afternoon/early evening it looks possible that mid 60s dewpoints may set up along a northeast-southwest oriented dryline.
So far, I can only see negatives with this setup. The dryline orientation with the 500mb flow along with the major southwesterly component to the 850mb flow being at the top. There is a touch of veer-back in the forecast soundings along the dryline as well, but this type of veer-back doesn't bother me all that much. Also, all of the soundings are showing substantial capping, which may prevent storms all togother.
Overall, this setup doesn't appear overly favorable for a great chasing event. That being said, there is still some potential here, and some time for it to possibly get better. Also, being that it falls on a Sunday and in pretty favorable terrain, I will definitely be considering a chase. I am just not sure how far of a drive this warrants yet. In a perfect world I would play the dryline somewhere down on the KS/OK border, but again there are major capping concerns and SW 850 concerns... There could also be another target further north as somewhat of a triple point may set up near OAX.
So far, I can only see negatives with this setup. The dryline orientation with the 500mb flow along with the major southwesterly component to the 850mb flow being at the top. There is a touch of veer-back in the forecast soundings along the dryline as well, but this type of veer-back doesn't bother me all that much. Also, all of the soundings are showing substantial capping, which may prevent storms all togother.
Overall, this setup doesn't appear overly favorable for a great chasing event. That being said, there is still some potential here, and some time for it to possibly get better. Also, being that it falls on a Sunday and in pretty favorable terrain, I will definitely be considering a chase. I am just not sure how far of a drive this warrants yet. In a perfect world I would play the dryline somewhere down on the KS/OK border, but again there are major capping concerns and SW 850 concerns... There could also be another target further north as somewhat of a triple point may set up near OAX.