2016-05-23 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[Ben Holcomb]

Perhaps the second day of what is shaping up to be a great looking system per the 12Z GFS. Split flow still persists from Sunday the 22nd. Only real concern right now for me is somewhat lesser lower level shear on Monday. Low centered over Boise City, OK in the panhandle doesn't really deepen significantly until Tuesday.

Nonetheless, deep gulf moisture and somewhat steep lapse rates seem to suggest the potential for severe and supercells over most of SW/C OK and into southern KS.

 

[Jeff House]

Monday looks good for a mesoscale forecaster, which here most are. Morning rain will be departing. While it might be a concern in April or early May, early rain is mainly an asset in late May. Outflow boundary OFB should be laid down over Kansas or Oklahoma. While I would not bet on Kansas 4 days out, I am pretty confident in the OFB somewhere. More rain than forecast would drop the OFB into Oklahoma.

Monday does present some short wave timing questions, note I do not call it issues like I would in April or early May. Again in late May these things can work out. Long days offer a wider window for the atmo to recover. Also late May instability will compensate for subtle forcing upstairs. Monday could be fairly localized, but it is probably a chase day.

 

[Matt Hunt]

Today is another crapshoot, and could potentially produce tornadoes all along the dryline. I was originally liking Woodward, OK, but this morning's model runs move the surface low further north, and surface winds in NW OK are not nearly as backed. Winds are backed nicely in west TX, and Td is already 70 here in Sweetwater. I'm thinking I'll just hang out here and wait for initiation. 12z NAM4KM has a nice cell at 00z over Big Spring again. Will keep an eye on visible satellite for any outflow boundaries from last night's storms. Enjoyed very little chaser convergence down here yesterday, hoping for the same today!

 

[Jeff House]

West Texas looks good per SPC reasoning. However HPs are possible to likely. Expect excellent parameters there, and outflow from North Texas storms extends west...

We will keep northwest OK / northern Texas Panhandle target. Another outflow is present there thanks to Wichita morning rain. Deep layer shear is adequate for late May. Low level shear should be excellent along our retreating boundary. Cells hopefully will enjoy better spacing.

Be safe and good luck to all.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Currently in Lamesa and believe there may be an east-west outflow boundary lying along a latitude between Lubbock and Tahoka?? Will hang around here and see how the dryline sharpens up where it intersects the boundary.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Heading northeast, all veered winds down in southwest TX, moving toward Childress where winds are backed; convergence in that area too, potential confluence zone / differential heating boundary???

 

[Dan Robinson]

Chasers be advised that the southeastern Texas panhandle is experiencing severe flooding at the moment, many secondary roads are reported to be blocked by high water. May be a factor to consider with this target.

 

[John Farley]

Driving from Tulia to Childress this morning, the main roads were not flooded but did have mud/dirt across the roads from earlier flooding in places. I would not attempt any unpaved road around this area, however.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I'm unfortunately not out chasing this week, however if I were chasing today I'd probably target Shamrock right along I-40. 1km visible satellite loop looks like some type of east-west boundary in that area (quite subtle). Skies have cleared across the Eastern TX Panhandle and it looks like things are heating up. The negatives today are that low level wind shear is going to be remarkably weaker than yesterday. Anvil level winds look weaker as well with current mesoanalysis only progging values around ~20-30 knots in the target area. Nonetheless HRRR shows storms firing up in the next couple hours and slowly drifting across the same areas once again, which may aggravate ongoing flooding prospects. I think the tornado potential today is lower than yesterday thanks to weaker low level winds. Good luck to anyone out chasing today and drive safely.