2015-05-15 EVENT: NM, CO, TX, OK, KS, NE

[Robert Edmonds]

Waiting on the next runs... I just love the sand hills...[/sarcasm] the setup looks good. I think this is the day. Nice hodographs, perhaps as mentioned though not enough turning with some runs in the 2-3 km. NAM is consistent with convection by 21Z in the western portion of the state. GFS trends further north toward the SD border.

hmmm.... 0Z though paints a different picture.

 

[samuel stone]

Well based on the last 3 or 4 runs of the NAM I had Kearney, NE area pegged down... The 0z Nam really changes my target. The sharpest part of the dryline and the best moisture/CAPE/EHI's are now really more in central or north central kansas, also the warmfront and its added shear is now way up north or gone almost entirely compared to previous runs of the NAM Bassically it has retreated the dryline punch and lifted the warmfront further north. 0Z nam breaks out precip in central kansas by 21Z but the mid-level and upper level flow is still quite week. Regardless my main area of interest (target?) is now closer to Salina, KS then Kearney, NE. Also CIN builds in very quicky after peak heating probably because an upper level vortmax (above 500 mb to 250mb) just clears the area after about 18-21z. So there are issues but central NE just doesn't look as good to me anymore.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Been watching the NAM for a couple days now and seriously Friday and Saturday are both looking good. Since this thread is about Friday, I'll touch upon what I like.

1. Anvil level winds seem to be (at least in Nebraska, which is where I'm targeting) somewhat offset by storm motion which should lead to less HP, even with somewhat lower flow.
2. NAM advertises 3000-3500 CAPE from North Platte to McCook tomorrow, which I don't know if we'll see that high, but 2000-3000 seems reasonable. That should be enough
3. Moisture seems pretty reasonable and deep, and should have no problem with northward transport today and tomorrow.
4. Deepening low throughout the day

Negatives
1. Very little to no EML. Early show, perhaps a lot of convection with forcing
2. Show may end up being further west than I think and earlier.

With that said, I like Northeast Colorado/Western Nebraska earlier in the day, as early as noon. Then I want to drop back southeast to North Platte and south into Northern Kansas near Colby as the atmosphere heats up and destabilizes. Obviously things change if the WF doesn't race as far north as fast as it looks like or if we have a lot of morning convection up there.

 

[Logan Karsten]

I was excited about this setup, and while it still has some potential, my enthusiasm has faded somewhat.

While the NAM continues to depict a nice dryline bulge across KS/NE, it has now shifted it further south and west, making the drive even longer for me. In addition, NAM is backing off some of the rich dews it had in previous runs.

Also, I was hoping the models would speed the trough up a bit to bring 50+ kt flow @ 500 to the target area. However, I am seeing around 40 kts at best.

Hopefully tonight's models will give me some reason to drive out there, but I just don't see it right now. I see a marginal setup that may yield a beautiful supercell, if things can be nudged in the right direction over the next 24 hours.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Well today doesn't look too exciting anymore. NW KS/NE looks to be main play. I am interested to see what happens with all of the agitated CU in West Oklahoma up through KS. We may get an isolated storm with possibly some structure shots