2015-05-09 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE/CO

[James Gustina]

Really unsure of where to even go today. Doesn't look like a good degree of moisture is going to make it past Liberal before midday and I'm not sold on WSW Oklahoma with the distinct weakness st 700 mb down there. Cloud cover all over creation. April 26, 2009 Part II: Electric Boogaloo.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Not sure what to think of today now. On a plus side that convection has formed before peak heating so that is good. On a downside, the stuff in the TX panhandle is zapping out those clear skies in SW/W Okla.

My plan of action is to monitor the Mesonet, Vis and Radar.

 

[Jesse Risley]

It's definitely a mesoscale forecasting day.

As I am sitting here in Childress, TX, skies are clearing as overnight convection rides out, with one last blast approaching from the west. We'll have plenty of mid and upper-level energy to work with today, so surface features will be the key ingredient. Synoptically, I like the northern target proximal to the surface low and INVO the richer theta-e advection, but there is a lot of archetypal dubiety about the extent of cloud cover and how ongoing convection to the south will impede the environment there. However, there is still some potential in SE CO and far W KS, especially if destabilization occurs, albeit arguably more conditional attm.

The 850-250 mb wind profiles do indeed suggest that there will be HPish storms to contend with today. I'm think the most optimistic and potentially rewarding scenario is for airmass recovery to commence further south along the dryline, from W OK into TX, where if sufficient destabilization can occur by late afternoon, renewed, hopefully discrete development will occur INVO the dryline ahead of the better upper level forcing as the leading edge of the H5 jet core starts working into the region. If this occurs and discrete or quasi-discrete structures can latch onto a myriad of residual boundaries left over from previous convection, with enhanced streamwise vorticity and at least modest thermodynamics (1500-2000 MLCAPE), we could see some potential for tornadic supercells in this region. Moisture return won't be an issue here, and models are initiating convection, though there are discrepancies between the HRRR and some WRF products.

I suspect we'll see a few tornado producers somewhere proximal to the actual surface low, and if sufficient heating occurs further south down the dryline, I expect a few decent storms here too. From a chaseability standpoint, flooded roads, HPish storms, potentially QLCSish structures and veer-back-veer wind profiles will probably not yield any sort of unforgettable outbreak of photogenic supercells, but time will tell.

 

[Brian McKibben]

After looking at some of the 12z runs. I think that the stuff over TX panhandle right now will be the main show for Oklahoma this afternoon. Much like yesterday. The difference today is that there is already a lot of clearing out ahead of this convection. I am not worried about anvils blocking the sun out because you can clearly see the anvils fanning out toward the north. Tds are that impressive yet in SW Okla, but they should approach 70 by early afternoon. Supercell composite via 4km NAM increases significantly from Noon onward across SW Okla. I think there is a good possibility that this line breaks up into semi discrete Supercells and possibly some warm sector development. Good Luck to all.

Target: The door to my storm shelter in Moore. Gotta keep the kids safe!

 

[Michael Snyder]

Well, the complex of storms that is going on now has no cloud cover behind it, and some mid 50s all the way into SE CO are already in place. You can see the afternooon energy rounding the base of the low. Clearing has already reached the extreme SW KS border. The question north of course is whether the atmosphere can recover fully. So for the SW KS play its a good thing the convection is moving out now, that's for sure. It will be interesting to see how much moisture can advect north BEHIND the complex today before the second round of convection this afternoon. Im in Western OK now, but Im taking a bit of a risk possibly and going for the CO/KS/OK border.

Be safe on those saturated back roads!

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm not a fan of veer-back-veer at all, and a morning check of soundings all over the target regions suggest that will be an issue everywhere except N TX from the 287 corridor south of SPS to the DFW metro. One instant red flag that might be raised when discussing this area as a potential target is initiation, but the 12Z NAM has a nice little belt of 50+kt h5 flow, SE of the main vortmax, riding over N TX between 21-0Z. For all its pessimissim the past 24 hours regarding the southern play, the 12Z 4KM NAM is now hinting at initiation in N TX between 21-0Z. With the only hodos that don't scream splits/HP blobs in the region, that's enough to keep me planted close to home today....basically groundhog day mode where we'll be doing the same thing/same place once again.

I'm certain there will be photogenic tornadoes in CO/KS with 50-degree dewpoints, 60 degree temps, and 500j/kg like there somehow always is, but I can't forecast that well enough to pick a spot; seems like you have to be on that one storm out of 6-7 that does the magic. For my money/time/sanity, I'd rather risk a subsidence bust down here. Normally I'm making a beeline for that sweet dryline punch in SW OK, but it breaks my heart to see that play being destroyed by (once again) crap flow at the anvil level. So my best play today looks to be the 287 corridor, with eyes looking west for development around 4-5pm through Throck/Graham, Seymour/Archer City, or Vernon/Electra.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Wish I were chasing; my 'virtual' chase target would be starting near Childress, TX. Caprock play today, staying in the warm sector and just follow the Red River area OK/TX border. TP looks messy to me and I wouldn't opt for "needle in the haystack" storms that far north, although there certainly could be multiple tornadoes in CO/KS later today. Higher CAPE = southern target would be my preference.
Bottom line; just have fun and be safe out there! Good luck to everyone!

 

[Brian McKibben]

I think the best bet for some robust supercells and possible tornadoes is in SW OK / NW TX. Lots of moisture down here. The SW KS play may happen but Tds are still in the 50s. 4km WRF does fire some convection in NW TX later. With 4000+ cape sitting along I-20 and north (per mesoanalysis) it seems plausible we could see some action down there.

 

[Jared Orr]

To avoid HP mode and horrible roads, we are choosing to chase in the north TX panhandle and OK panhandle. A giant cold-pool is currently sitting in the eastern part of the TX ph...this will hopefully drift east to open the way for the 60s dp's to sneak their way up to us. Currently, the moisture is being pinched in between the cold pool and the dryline. If it can advect north, we like the chaseability of this initiation that could occur later in the afternoon. I really like the steep low level lapse rates moving in from the west. We may stick to the western part of the tx panhandle to capitalize on these lapse rates and the more recovered air.

 

[Drew Terril]

I'm sitting in Elk City at the moment. Sun is out and the temp is rising quickly. If I go anywhere it'll be west from here, but I don't think I'm in a terrible spot at the moment.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Today seems like choosing the lesser of several evils rather than any good target. The environment in SW KS/OK panhandle had just about everything going for it if not for the moisture situation. Despite the excellent lapse rates and diffluent upper flow, I just cannot bring myself to leave 'real' instability to the south for mid to low 50s dewpoints, no matter what is above it. I feel like the northern areas (N TX panhandle and north) are going to need both pooling and just-in-time return flow to barely make it. Colorado would be my choice if I was in position to get up there, as high Plains magic can do things with 50s dews.

I'm not very excited about my N TX choice either, as down here we need the west side of the cold pool to modify. I'm placing my bets on the outflow/dryline intersection and points to the east, hoping that a.) the sun can warm the cool side of the boundary enough to make things happen and b.) we can make it past the subsidence from the departing morning activity.

 

[Andy Berrington]

Volatile looking 19z hodograph/shear profile from FWD explaining the upgrade in tornado probabilities/categorical outlook over this area. Sounding terminated before reaching higher levels but you can see the lower level CAPE profile looks favorable as well. Also note the steep mid level lapse rates.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Volatile looking 19z hodograph/shear profile from FWD explaining the upgrade in tornado probabilities/categorical outlook over this area. Sounding terminated before reaching higher levels but you can see the lower level CAPE profile looks favorable as well. Also note the steep mid level lapse rates.

Per mesoanalysis there is ~4000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 3000 MLCAPE (YIKES). The airmass down there was fairly uncontaminated by the early convection. In fact the storm that approached Dallas early in the day died off before getting there. Storms are already firing along the DL along and north of I-20. At 3pm the STP was already up to 4 and that is before the LLJ stregthens. Surface obs show Tds are >70 across much of N Tex. Also, the VGP is > 0.3 and even 0.4 from the DL to the east.

If any chaser can still make N Tex, I would say do it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The supercell about 100 miles w/sw of DFW Metro area just made a slight bump to the east and is looking mean. Low level velocities are increasing with each frame. This storm could be a serious problem for the DFW region unless it gets some competition to the south fast.

Edit... Just T-Warned.

 

[Warren Faidley]

FOX4 in DFW showing video of a very large cone tornado.

http://www.fox4news.com/category/264130/stream-1