2015-05-07 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/NE/IA

Apr 5, 2010
Omaha, Nebraska
So yesterday turned out pretty well for a lot of chasers, and that upgrade from the SPC at noon was good foreshadowing, but what about today?

Looking at the models, we've got quite a bit of clearing on the backside. 2-3k Cape is expected from TX all the way to E Neb and W IA. Shear isn't looking good up north, but it didn't look good up north yesterday until almost 18z, then boom, heating and LLJ took care of that. Upper level support is still strong in the north, with the trough axis still parked over Neb/KS and strong DPVA still in place.

Further S in TX and OK, we've got morning convection blowing up and messing with everything. HRRR and RAP both predict a squall line / bow segment forming this morning / noonish and ruining all of the fun from AMA to OKC. Further S near Wichita Falls is probably the best target down south, as EHI's are forecast to be decent. Or maybe head to the other side of the split and hit up Central KS where you've got better upper level support, but run the risk of getting dry slotted.

What do you guys think? Many of you will take today off to recover from yesterday, but I'm sure many of you want to get out there because you got HP'ed last night and want good tor.
Looking at recent data, all the "crapvection" to the south makes me want to hedge my bets on a northern target. Recent runs of the HRRR has some discrete cells in the OK Panhandle near Guymon this afternoon. Also, there is 0-6 km shear of 40 kts to the west that will be moving into the region this afternoon.

Latest analysis shows clear skies around Guymon with Td's in the mid 50's and CAPE values near 2500 for this afternoon. I have always been one to pick a target outside of the obvious target. Today is one of those days. I have good confidence that a nice sculpted supercell along with a possible isolated tornado will occur somewhere within a 40 mile radius of my target area.

TARGET: Guymon, OK