2014-05-11 FCST: TX, OK, KS, NE, IA, MO, IL

[Jacob Ferden]

I have doubts about this setup too, but right now I have to agree with Skip in this respect...if you want a chance at good tornadoes, particularly a chance at good diurnal tornadoes, it's Nebraska all the way. Morning convection is the one huge question. Best case scenario as I see it goes like this: NAM is right with farther west surface low placement, morning convection clears out to the east in good time, storms fire in SC-SE Nebraska, track NE toward warm front, encounter OFB's left by the morning convection. Will it happen just like that? Probably not, but one can hope. I also will echo Skip's concern about there possibly being too much lift. OFB's and warm fronts won't do all that much good if things blow up inexorably into a linear mess early on. So, this is a really tricky forecast. But with the complete lack of anything remotely interesting for at least the next week or so, I feel I have to give it the best shot I can. So, I likely will be leaving Norman early this morning for the northern play.

 

[dixiealleyspotter]

Anybody notice the small band in WRN CO?

Dew's and CAPE low.... but I cant stop trying to imagine what a cell going up there would look like....

Wish I could make it to NE but its just not going to happen for me.... Good luck to all up there.

I am seeing more and earlier moisture in OK so I am in. Its close enough that I will surly be out there ready for a long shot. Even some timelapse footage of a elevated, structure monster is worth it to me. And if I am interpreting the models correctly I do see that the center of the Low dips a bit further south than previously progged. Which means to me that anything could happen to the Hodographs.

But certainly not better than the Northern target.

 

[Michael Thompson]

Good luck to all the Aussies chasing in the USA tomorrow (Sunday). If I was there (sadly not) I would however be concerned about the line of storms currently active along southern Nebraska, if they move NE into Iowa, it could be as a mess, limiting potential. Therefore my VIRTUAL target is Beatrice, Nebraska as the current storms should clear there not long into the morning.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The RAP and NAM are in agreement with the GFS with rapid and deep surface cyclogensis occurring in southwest KS/OK/TV panhandles by 00z Mon with a cold front dryline triple point setting up in central KS. Hodographs look amazing. I'd be targeting the Great Bend to Pratt KS areas. just east of the triple point where surface winds go from veered around 20z to almost due east by 00z. In fact, I'm seeing backed 850s now in the hodographs in central KS. I won't be surprised if something spectacular comes out of central KS today. dewpoitn depressions might be a bit high at first, but it should aid in better visible storm structure. The kinematic environment even with questionable temp/dewpoint spreads will be very conducive to classic tornadic supercell structures into the evening.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I'm concerned about the southern extent of the target along the dryline now. Capping looks strong until around 0z but non of the high res models break precip except for southern Kansas. I hate to abandon the dryline target but if everything stays dry, I'm going to have to.

 

[Mike Smith]

13Z HRRR has discrete storms as far south as DDC by 21Z. I think what may be confusing people, including me, is that the threat seems farther west in Kansas than the last few days. Those storms are forecast to rotate.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well the 12z NAM really pulled the cold front even further northwest and not moving much until around 0z.

So a storm that far south and west seems legit. The HRRR has been consistent, too, about a storm firing south of Wichita Falls, TX. That storm will likely be high based but as the LCLs come down it could become a discrete lonely cell down there.

Despite that I'll probably still play tail end charlie so long as the front doesn't decide to crash the party early. But I think it'll hold back to get a storm to fire south of it and get far enough away that we should see a good show. We already have a good swath of low to mid 60 dews in far western OK and southern KS.