2014-05-07 FCST: NE, IA, , MN, KS, OK, TX

[Adam Adkins]

CO

I think there is a pretty good play today in northeast CO. Bulk shear and instability look good behind the front, and despite cooler temperatures dpts. will be close. Strong low level shear and lifted condensation levels only a few thousand feet above ground level are favorable for tornado development.

 

[Logan Karsten]

Keeping an eye on the MN/IA border today as it's in my backyard. Shear isn't the best, but instability and lower LCLs up here will support a brief tornado threat if anything can actually break the cap. 11z HRRR had a good cell blowing up a few counties southwest of the Twin Cities. However, the trends on days like today is the early HRRR runs to blow convection off, which erodes away with subsequent runs.

 

[Francis]

. I do admire Skip, Francis and others that are going to look at it, though. Good luck to you all.

We actually abandonned our original Iowa target for today as we fear the hills and trees of MN and IA and that it seems to be mostly an after dark event. We are heading west as we speak on I-80 to play the western Nebraska targets, where CAPE is a lot less, but where moisture around Norht Platte around 00z should be a lot better. The helicity 0-1km seems ok and good 500mb & 700mb shear. The temperature and dewpoints in the 40s are somewhat concerning, but we'll give it a try and try to get in position for tomorrow also. Good luck today to anyone heading out, it's a tricky target. I like the wrap around moisture in Nebraska!

 

[Logan Karsten]

Francis, the terrain in southern MN, west of I-35 is actually pretty good. It's not until you are about 50 miles or less from the Twin Cities when it starts to get messy. HRRR is continually breaking storms out along the warm front near 23z this evening. Surprisingly, surface moisture is there in Iowa right now, and moving northward. I may actually head out of work a bit early, drive down there and see what happens.