LightiningRod
I was thinking to combine a multi-day thread into one but I think this is fine. Let's get started.
This weekend I think is going to be the most interesting severe weather event so far this Spring season, particularly Sunday and perhaps Monday. A deep upper level low will be coming out of the West Coast by the end of this week. A surging LLJ across the Central and Southern Plains will allows dewpoints to reach in the mid 60s across the region. GFS depicts on Saturday that the dryline will be across the OK/TX Panhandles with strong surface based instability (SBCAPES around 4000 J/KG) and eroding CIN, the potential exists for VERY LARGE HAIL > 2 inches, damaging winds, and tornadoes (particularly close to the evening in West and Central OK when the 0-3 km helicities increases to around 300 m2/s2+). Some of the tornadoes maybe strong as result (EF2 or larger). Deep layer shear should be sufficient for robust updrafts and a discrete mode is favored as the bulk shear vector will remain perpendicular to the dryline. This will be the start of something potentially dangerous through the weekend and into Monday at least.
This setup this weekend should make storm chasers salivate particularly on Sunday and Monday when the deep upper level trough approaches the warm sector.
Best of luck storm chasers!
~Rod M.
This weekend I think is going to be the most interesting severe weather event so far this Spring season, particularly Sunday and perhaps Monday. A deep upper level low will be coming out of the West Coast by the end of this week. A surging LLJ across the Central and Southern Plains will allows dewpoints to reach in the mid 60s across the region. GFS depicts on Saturday that the dryline will be across the OK/TX Panhandles with strong surface based instability (SBCAPES around 4000 J/KG) and eroding CIN, the potential exists for VERY LARGE HAIL > 2 inches, damaging winds, and tornadoes (particularly close to the evening in West and Central OK when the 0-3 km helicities increases to around 300 m2/s2+). Some of the tornadoes maybe strong as result (EF2 or larger). Deep layer shear should be sufficient for robust updrafts and a discrete mode is favored as the bulk shear vector will remain perpendicular to the dryline. This will be the start of something potentially dangerous through the weekend and into Monday at least.
This setup this weekend should make storm chasers salivate particularly on Sunday and Monday when the deep upper level trough approaches the warm sector.
Best of luck storm chasers!
~Rod M.