2014-03-02 FCST: TX/LA/AR

[jamesmseitz]

Just looking at things again and most convinced that tornadoes will happen Sunday. I know its not a normal set up but things are coming together. Like I said 3 days ago storms will happen and they will ride the boundary and interact with it for a prolonged time frame. TX AR LA area.... we will see. Hodo's look good but they are going to be wet and messy. I know there are issues with the chances but have seen these type of set ups really surprise us all in the past so thought I would say something.

 

[Matt Hunt]

It certainly has some potential, though at the moment the thermodynamics are not lined up with the best winds that I see. Higher CAPE values are expected in central TX near Austin, and there's a pretty nice dryline setting up there as well. 500mb flow is great in this region, however mid-level flow is lacking. Further NE toward Texarkana and east along the AR/LA border, there are some nicely curved hodo's and significantly better mid-level winds. However, this region is currently showing meager instability. If this area destabilizes, I'd say there's a good chance for tornadoes there.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Looking at this mornings models, not too excited. I want to chase SOMEWHERE if it still looks at least OK by the time it rolls around, but I have no idea where I would set up at this point. The NAM looks pretty crappy no matter where you are.... where there's instability in Central and Southern TX, wind profiles are absolute crap. No instability further north and east. As others have said, GFS paints a slightly better picture. Nice dryline setting up out in central TX, with good instability, CAPE values above 1000 j/kg. Wind profiles, however, once again CRAP out in that direction. Hodographs look nice further east in the Arklatex, closer to home for me which would be nice, but instability nonexistent. Definitely not confident at this point with the setup, but we shall see, hoping for a chase!

 

[Jason Boggs]

From what I've seen, anything with any interest in central TX will happen well after midnight. If I had to pick a "chase target" right now, I'd like to be somewhere between San Angelo and Brownwood TX (maybe closer to Brownwood). Maybe a rogue supercell in this area with decent parameters and fairly moist air.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Starting to think east TX into Central LA a good bet for a chase since it's just so close. Models showing a bit better instability right ahead of the front, with CAPE values 500- maybe 1000 j/kg.. still keeping the best instability out ahead of the dryline in central TX. Hodographs at least as the GFS depicts, look pretty acceptable in e tx at 18z tomorrow. Front undercutting convection could be a huge issue though, definitely a marginal day where a lot can go wrong, but once again, just so close to home.