Marcus Diaz
EF5
We're still a few days away but thought I'd start a thread as I'm licking my chops on this one. I'm sure everyone else has been keeping tabs on it as well. My forecast is based strictly on the GFS, but its been very consistent the past 2 or 3 days on this setup. In response to the upper level low coming on shore in the Pac West, surface cyclogenisis ramps up in the northern frontrange up in MT and WY with a deepening surface low. With the ridge breaking down and shifting to the east coast, that should aid in transporting very good moisture through the central Plains in conjunction with the surface low. Mid 60 to near 70 dews look realistic from Oklahoma up through NE. Winds from the H5 to H2 look acceptable with generally a westerly flow of 25-40 kts. What I really like is how the GFS has been showing a nice impulse in the 700s coming out of southern CO through SW KS/NW OK/eastern panhandles area. If this holds up then wherever that impulse lands should aid in mid level flow for any storms developing. A dryline buldge looks likely in SW KS/OK panhandle (maybe the dryer air from that impulse?) which could provide the focus for some classic dryline supercells. Capping seems to be the main fly in the ointment, especially the further north you go. But if anything can fire on the dryline, it'll have not just the good bulk shear to work with, but also a very unstable 3000-4000 j/kg SBCAPE environment. I might have to play hookie from work for this one!