2013-05-31 EVENT: KS, OK, MO, IL

[John Keyes]

Other spotters were reporting satellite vortices at the time. Still, Bettes was rolled a ways, implying stronger winds than the typical weaker satellite twister. From the look of his video, it looks like the main funnel is quite close. Something large.

He was just on TWC discussing this with Dr. Forbes. They were looking at the strong possibility that they were actually hit by one of the suction vortices.

 

[Jake Orosi]

My understanding from a chaser friend that was on the scene is that TWC's Bettes was actually hit by a satellite tornado, not the main one. If that is accurate, it is a distinction that has not been noted in anything I have seen or read. In my opinion, that does a disservice to the public, who should be made aware that if it was the main tornado, it would not have been survivable, and that satellite vortices can occur right above you even if you think you are away from the main tornado.

Jim

Disservice to the public? Anybody who looks at the photo of the truck knows instinctively that everyone in it is lucky to be alive; and that message is the one TWC and Bettes himself have been sending since the incident.

I'm sure nobody who's seen the pics is thinking "pssht, that's it?" The thing looks like it lost a race to an Abrams.

 

[Stan Rose]

yes, i think it most likely was a suction vortex. From the video, it almost seems like they are driving into the path of the tornado. They were just too far north, and must have known they were in deep trouble. In retrospect might have been better to head into the rain and hail.

 

[Brian Hartmann]

I didn't see this posted yet. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/01/the-night-that-should-change-tornado-actions-and-storm-chasing-forever/


More discussion fodder...

 

[Bob Schafer]

Were you watching the same supercell I was? Yeah, when it was over the city, it was pretty mushy and outflow-y, but it had a very intense radar presentation for a few frames near El Reno. Other than the junk running into it from the back end, it looked pretty classic.

Base Reflectivity:

Base Velocity:

I was watching it and I was chasing it. Yes it produced a significant tornado for a relatively short time. That makes it some special, extraordinary supercell? Apparently I am missing something.

 

[Derek Weston]

Incredibly sad news about Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.

Every time we set out on a chase we know something like this may transpire, that we could put ourselves in harms way... even if we wish not to. What a sobering reminder this was, to lose some of our finest.

I think the inherent danger in storm chasing -- like most extreme sports -- is self evident. So long as nobody is suggesting it is anything else but dangerous I don't have a problem with their actions. If you want to snuggle up to a rain-wrapped wedge, that's your decision.

 

[Mike Smith]

You are wrong.
The path was not sinusoidal, it was cycloidal. I have mentioned this a few times in my recent posts that tornadoes can and do make these types of moves. Let's clear this up now. This is nothing new.

Jeff: My comments clearly state that I was referring to Friday night; not that this topic has never come up before. Of course it has.

You are correct that it was cycloidal. However, my blog post used the term "simplifed explanation" and I thought the term sinusoidal (i.e., as in sine wave) was more understandable than the less familiar "cycloidal."

My blog, for what seems like the thousandth time I have stated this, is written for the general public. For you to get hyper critical is beside the point. I'll write this off to the stress and sadness you are feeling this morning.

Mike

 

[Shawn Schuman]

I was with RaXPol (rapid-scan, mobile, polarimetric radar) yesterday with Howie B. and Jana H., and we capture tornadogenesis and relatively quick intensification from our first deployment location ~2 mi NE of the El Reno airport. As the tornado got to our SSW, we undeployed and later redeployed at I40 and Banner Rd. The radial velocity measurements within the tornado as it neared I40 were extreme. Fortunately for the people of El Reno, the tornado stayed in an extremely unpopulated area. As a consequence of this, however, there were an extremely limited number of Damage Indicators (DIs) that could be used to rate a violent tornado that were affected by the strongest winds in the tornado when it was near I40. I haven't seen the official survey results, but the extremely strong winds stayed, it appears, over open ranch and farm lands. Since the EF scale is a damage scale by it's very nature and design, I suspect the EF rating assigned to the tornado based upon damage will be significantly less than the EF rating associated with the peak winds within the tornado. This isn't uncommon, mind you, when significant tornadoes move through rural areas with little in the way of significant structures to damage. The winds on our lowest scans (0-2 degree elevation angle scans at a range of 4-5 km from the radar) seem to support a top-of-the-scale rating, but there needs to be supporting damage for it to be given such a "rare" rating. This is a conflicting consequence of a tornado staying away from population centers (good for the people, bad if one is trying to use damage and the EF scale as a proxy for tornado intensity)...

The El Reno multivortex tornado had a very large radius of maximum winds, was near an extremely strong RFD, and had very intense subvortices. I can guarantee it would have been catastrophic had it moved though El Reno or waited and moved through Yukon and the western OKC metro. This was a major league tornado.

Thanks Jeff, I saw some figures elsewhere that certainly seem to confirm a high-end tornado. Is there any sort of official policy on how to handle mobile radar data? We've seen a couple of tornadoes rated at least partially on that basis, but it seems in several other cases they default to the damage-based rating. Is the hesitation to use radar data because of concerns about biasing the climatology?

 

[chrisbray]

I didn't see this posted yet. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/01/the-night-that-should-change-tornado-actions-and-storm-chasing-forever/


More discussion fodder...

There are definitely some good points brought in that link, thanks for sharing. I'm a little behind on the events of Friday, I was out enjoying my anniversary with my wife....but after reading everything today I'm very depressed. I think deep down we all know this may happen eventually but I'm stunned it happened to Tim.

Side note....After looking at the tweet that showed the number of chasers who were essentially inside the main circulation on radar....I have to seriously question what people are trying to do out there. We are lucky more chasers weren't killed. I can't imagine ever putting myself in a position like that....was this a combination of convergence, sudden tornado path change, poor positioning and limited road options?

 

[Mike Smith]

Thanks Jeff, I saw some figures elsewhere that certainly seem to confirm a high-end tornado. Is there any sort of official policy on how to handle mobile radar data? We've seen a couple of tornadoes rated at least partially on that basis, but it seems in several other cases they default to the damage-based rating. Is the hesitation to use radar data because of concerns about biasing the climatology?

The Wichita-Clearwater EF-2 and EF-3 of May 19, 2013, were rated based on DoW data.

My personal opinion is that data taken within 50 ft. of the ground (the height of roofs of taller homes) from mobile radars should be allowed to count in the ratings.

 

[Damon Lewis]

A couple of thoughts:

1) While I don't doubt the soil is poor in some parts of Oklahoma, the entire state? I have friends in Arkansas City, KS (2 mi. north of border) with basements and one in Comanche Co., Kansas (5 mi. north of border) with a basement. The Flint Hills of Kansas are known for their limestone (heck, there is a mine in Butler Co.)but, again, homes and commercial buildings in the Flint Hills have basements. I just don't buy the "soil is poor" argument over every square mile of Oklahoma (and, yes, my friend in Tulsa tells me he doesn't have a basement because "the soil is poor").

2) I haven't seen anyone comment on the sinusoidal movement of the tornado(s) and its effects on the chasing mess last night. See: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/06/comments-about-fridays-storms.html A similar movement occurred with the Cleburne, Texas, tornado recently.

In the Tulsa area I've heard it's the water table. Honestly, I think it's cost as the only homes I know with basements are the older homes in Midtown. I don't of anyone with a home built from 1970 on that has a basement and I've lived here almost 41 years and have always been very social.

 

[Michael Riedl]

A couple of thoughts:

1) While I don't doubt the soil is poor in some parts of Oklahoma, the entire state? I have friends in Arkansas City, KS (2 mi. north of border) with basements and one in Comanche Co., Kansas (5 mi. north of border) with a basement. The Flint Hills of Kansas are known for their limestone (heck, there is a mine in Butler Co.)but, again, homes and commercial buildings in the Flint Hills have basements. I just don't buy the "soil is poor" argument over every square mile of Oklahoma (and, yes, my friend in Tulsa tells me he doesn't have a basement because "the soil is poor").

I would agree.

I do quite a bit of work on a ranch here in Butler County in the summer time between semesters, and just recently I was digging postholes for new pipe fencing. I couldn't believe the amount of Clay that was in the soil as we dug it up, especially since you hear so much about it in OK but there was substantial Clay in the soil. Yet, the ranch house has a basement and most everyone I know in El Dorado has a basement. It's pretty much standard on new homes around here.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Side note....After looking at the tweet that showed the number of chasers who were essentially inside the main circulation on radar....I have to seriously question what people are trying to do out there. We are lucky more chasers weren't killed. I can't imagine ever putting myself in a position like that....was this a combination of convergence, sudden tornado path change, poor positioning and limited road options?

Chris, having chased it (see my report) I think you'd want to envision the events of Friday as two different stories.

The first was early on while the storm was producing the siggy tor invof El Reno and W of Yukon. From what I have read thus far the tornado took a big and unexpected turn in its path, and that seems to be how the chasers got struck. The "parking lot" was nowhere near that scene.

 

[Brian Hartmann]

Side note....After looking at the tweet that showed the number of chasers who were essentially inside the main circulation on radar....I have to seriously question what people are trying to do out there.

Without trying to start a flame war, what are the primary reasons why people chase?
1) research
2) photography
3) adrenaline
4) spotting for emergency management
5) spotting for media
6) Others?

The only motivations that I can see on my list, as it is, that are served by being in that close is #3, or perhaps #2 on rare occasions. In all other pursuits, being in that close is dangerous and, I would contend, counter-productive. I know that the media chasers like to wrap themselves in the cloak of public safety and "ground-truthing" of the radar indications to alert the general public of the precise location and movement of the tornado, and sometimes they do a fabulous job. But in this case, did that "ground-truthing" necessitate being in THAT close? I was not on the storm and don't know the roadway options that they had, so I don't want to second guess them and am asking that as a pure question?

The only pursuit that would at times necessitate being that close would be #1 in terms of microscale dynamics research (dropping instrument packages, etc). From what I know of Mr. Samaras, this was part of what he did, correct?

Let's keep the discussion going in a constructive manner and see what can be learned.

Brian

 

[chrisbray]

Chris, having chased it (see my report) I think you'd want to envision the events of Friday as two different stories.

The first was early on while the storm was producing the siggy tor invof El Reno and W of Yukon. From what I have read thus far the tornado took a big and unexpected turn in its path, and that seems to be how the chasers got struck. The "parking lot" was nowhere near that scene.

Ok so essentially there were a lot of people in the "bear's cage" who couldn't get out when the tornado turned? I'm just not used to seeing so many people positioned on the northeast side of the circulation, it doesn't usually seem like the best location. Now I am by no means an expert and am not starting a flame fest but I do think a conversation about everything that happened May 31st is worth having