• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2013-05-31 FCST: KS, OK, MO, IL

Just saw the 12z SPC wrf. Scary situation unfolding.

refd_1000m_f12.gif
 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL OK BY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
 
Today looks ungodly for OK; rapid surface cyclgogenesis in the TX panhandle deepens to 996 mb by 00z which will help back surface winds substantiall and enlarge hodographs; in addition, the shear vector is more perpendicular to the dryline today. Sig Tor is 12 by 00z just north of OKC. Dewpoints in the mid 70s with a strong breakable cap. Loaded gun situation. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they go high risk. The parameters look worse then on May 20th.
 
It`s very puzzling to me that the SPC upgraded to 15% and hatched area for tornadoes without high risk, I don`t think I`ve ever seen 15% be moderate risk before. I hope the OKC area takes this setup very seriously. If things play out right it could be a very short window of warning between initiation and touch down.

Gotta be 30% to get to high risk.
 
Here we go again... the cell due west of OKC has an epic velocity couplet and nearly perfect hook. If it keeps its act together it is headed strait into the OKC metro area.

EDIT: mile wide on the ground -OKC channel 9
 
It appears Mike Bettis from TWC and crew were overtaken by the storm. Their vehicle was tossed some 200 yards. Bettis was able to call into TWC and say everybody is alright, just cut up.
 
Not going with a high risk this afternoon seems to have been the right call. There were several storms along the I-44 corridor but only one seemed to take advantage of today's atmosphere. Reminds me of May 20, actually. (Thankfully, I don't think we're dealing with that sort of outcome.)
 
Unfortunately I was not able to contribute to this thread as I was doing VIP forecasting for a client, but this is a graphic that I sent him at 4:56 pm. It shows the OK mesonet relative humidities ahead of the developing storm (the El Reno one is the one you see here in northern Caddo County). There had been 365K+ theta-e's that moved through Chickasha at about 3 pm and had advected north to El Reno by 5-6 pm, and these were also associated with high RH% values. So we had all the ingredients locally concentrated for a parcel with high instability and low LCL. I'm not saying I could forecast this "mesoscale accident" if it happened again, but the smoking gun was right there in the data.

T63JMFh.jpg
 
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