2013-05-19 FCST: TX/OK/KS/NE/MO/IA

[Michael Snyder]

bartsville is already to DP69 right now, 68 degree DPs all the way into KS already. Dont think LCL will be THAT big of an issue.

Dryline still out on the panhandles as of now, should quickly mix east....

 

[Paul Schmit]

Dryline now a couple counties into OK coming in from the west. HRRR now shows abrupt line of initiation along I-35 corridor at 22Z, with 0-1km SRH near 200, 45-50kt shear. The minefield of convection progged further north in S KS and its eventual upscale conversion to an MCS are inclining me to take the safer dryline play (well, that and the horrible AT&T data coverage north of the OK-KS border). LCLs don't appear to be much worse in the OK region compared to SE KS. With convection working its way south nearly to OKC Metro with 3 hours of additional daylight to play with, should make for a good chase and easy east-west exit options when the line starts to congeal.

 

[Eric Birch]

Looks like good setup area along I35 corridor between Wichita and OKC. Best area likely between hwy 160 and 166. First good initiation southeast of ICT approaching Norwic, KS though no rotation shown yet. Another storm west of Enid appears to be on dryline and on nose of dry slot in water vapor imagery. Another line of towers blowing up west of OKC along I35. Though cloud cover is minimal, large area of no cloud cover persists over I35 corridor as well. According to mesonet and all other inputs, best initiation area looks to be on I35 north of hwy412 to Kansas border with storms moving into area southeast of ICT north of OK/KS border were surface based winds are more SE with thermodynamic and synoptic ingredients in place.

 

[Eric Birch]

First tornado warning for storm north of Viola, KS moving along hwy 42. Storm has nice shape on radar but RF where couplet would be.

 

[Eric Birch]

Looks like nice funnel along hwy 42 now north of Viola approaching ICT. Intercept if it persist should be around 42 and I235. Does appear to be ingesting precip now though it has strong roation in all low level scans.

 

[MClarkson]

That cell is aimed strait at ICT, with a tight velocity couplet at very low levels (the cell is right up against the radar now). It looks like its going to track a few miles south of the radar itself.

 

[Joshua T. Clark]

Storm northwest of OKC metro area just went tornado warned.

 

[MClarkson]

As it moved into ICT city center the circulation looks a bit looser and weaker on both Wichita and Topeka radar.

 

[Eric Birch]

Storm soutwest of Edmund, OK still trying to come together. Nice wall cloud formed but rotation not as tight as needed...yet.

 

[Eric Birch]

Tornado on the ground in Edmund, OK now. Cone shaped funnel apparently according to News9. http://www.news9.com/category/258217/weather-control-center

 

[Eric Birch]

Seems as though cell north of OKC east of Edmund, OK has put down 2-3 tornadoes and is a right mover at this point. Expect to see it cycle again. First tornado appeared relatively strong and second/third weak.

 

[Eric Birch]

Another tornado on the ground near Luther, OK now.

On a side note, still a nice slot for another strong storm to develop if it can make it up before the witching hour around 412 and I35 in OK. Still open air in nice environment.

 

[Eric Birch]

Now the guy who can't stop screaming on stream is calling the storm by Luther a wedge and an EF4. It has been multiple vortex at times according to stream.

Ok, just saw chopper feed and it is actually massive. I suppose I will allow that guy to scream I guess.

 

[Eric Birch]

I guess I just got a little caught up but there is another large tornado now north of Pink, OK SE of OKC.

 

[Brian McKibben]

I think it is interesting to note that the GFS predicted the convection in Central Oklahoma better than the NAM. It is painting another gruesome picture for tomorrow, so keep an eye on it.