Michael Riedl
EF2
With the GFS continuing its trend of slowing down the storm system Sunday is a day that is looking better and better after each model run.
0z GFS progs Dryline along the I-35 Corridor in KS/OK with a warm front futher north in IA. Depending on trough evolution the Warm Front might have mode of convection issues with a Back-Veer-Back profile.
Cooling aloft should spread over the Target Area, so CAP might not be too big of a factor - though would like some EML to hold things off. Shear might not be off the charts, but it's definitely good enough.
Still 120 hours out, with mesoscale details to sort out in the last 24 hours, but right now, this looks like it has good potential.
0z GFS progs Dryline along the I-35 Corridor in KS/OK with a warm front futher north in IA. Depending on trough evolution the Warm Front might have mode of convection issues with a Back-Veer-Back profile.
Cooling aloft should spread over the Target Area, so CAP might not be too big of a factor - though would like some EML to hold things off. Shear might not be off the charts, but it's definitely good enough.
Still 120 hours out, with mesoscale details to sort out in the last 24 hours, but right now, this looks like it has good potential.