brice.coffer
EF0
I have been intrigued with GFS forecasts for Wednesday D4 for a few days now. I see potential in the SW OK/NW TX region. I'll start with a negative aspect though. The upper-level cutoff low over the Baja peninsula ejects northeastward over northern Mexico and into TX/OK without much response at the surface. By the time the broad surface pressure trough develops into a surface low near LBB, the upper-level disturbance has overrun its lower-level counterpart, giving the system a distinct eastward tilt with height. Not an ideal synoptic setup from a QG or PV point-of-view. However, the GFS has been remarkably consistent for the last several days with a northwesterly flow setup. The 180 degree SFC-500mb crossover is also worrisome, but that is usually the case with NW flow. The basic parameters are in place, and considering the season so far, its a day worth keeping an eye on. I just started looking over the 84hr forecast from the NAM, and the severe potential seems lower in that model solution. I'll hopefully post more in the coming days.
SFC PRS/PRECIP:
2M THETAE/SFC WNDS
MUCAPE/6KM BULK SHEAR
SFC PRS/PRECIP:
![34yahl3.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi43.tinypic.com%2F34yahl3.jpg&hash=c2a9014c2d6f1f31ac91974167e1dd73)
2M THETAE/SFC WNDS
![30hy61l.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi43.tinypic.com%2F30hy61l.gif&hash=b4b1e1397adafd482bea7d3224167187)
MUCAPE/6KM BULK SHEAR
![10dw3cx.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi44.tinypic.com%2F10dw3cx.gif&hash=c5ba7307239591d76d7c6cdf8a568d94)