2012-04-14 MISC: TX/OK/KS/NE/IA

[Bob Schafer]

This storm doesn't look very good on GRL3, plus it looks like it will skirt off to the east of ICT by a bit. I am much more interested in what's going to happen in Lyons.

 

[rdale]

ICT is getting ready to hunker down and hand off to TOP as well... this is not good.

When cells cycle the next one is usually on the southeast flank (assuming motion to the northeast.) That would keep NWS ICT well away from the tornado path. Looks like most (if not all) of the city would miss out too.

 

[Craig Norris]

unreal morph of the tornadic cell moving into Wichita between my last 3 scans on GRL3. It lost its hook echo structure almost entirely. Good chance to cycle when it clears Wichita heat island???

 

[rdale]

Remember that it's < 5 miles away from the radarsite, although I agree it's weakening. I've not seen research of a "heat island" effect killing tornadoes, especially when the storm isn't even near the actual city yet?

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I haven't been looking at this Wichita situation extensively, but from what I can tell it looks like the track of the tornado (or tornadic circulation) extrapolates into the southwest side of the city... and pretty much directly for that arena. Wichita is in major danger unless there is a change or another occlusion cycle (and even that would probably track over the McConnell AFB area).

 

[Eric Birch]

For what it's worth, doesn't look good for Lyons either.

 

[Scott Bilyou]

Eric, sorry, my eleven year old daughter posted that comment. I've been watching all day. She knows better. Sorry.

 

[rdale]

Spotters reported that it lifted south of Clearwater, so to me that still looks more like SE ICT than SW.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Holy cow, I realized I was interrogating the Wichita cell using KVNX still. Switching over to KICT the circulation does look much more broad scale... so this is a good sign.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Now the "Lyons" storm looks like it's crapping out, too, but if there was/is, indeed still a tornado there it may have passed west of Lyons.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

RDale: Agreed on southeast side of Wichita.. it does look like it's shifted slightly east. Still looking at the scans... there's a lot of interaction going on with whatever that thing is on the tail end.

Tim

 

[rdale]

KICT 150305Z 16021G37KT 1 1/2SM R01L/3500VP6000FT +TSRA BR OVC024CB 21/20 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 17037/0256 PRESRR TWR EVACUATING DUE TO REPORTED TORNADO VC SW MOVG NE CONS LTGICCG TS E-S-SW MOVG NE P0015 $

NWS Wichita has evacuated as well, but spotters continue to report no signs of tornado or damage behind it.

 

[MClarkson]

Looks like its splitting in the last velocity frame from vance, with new circulation displaced further south and east.

 

[Eric Birch]

Tim, I was wondering what I wasn't seeing as you are very experienced. Thanks for lettingn me know the drinks are getting to me.

Looks like main circulation has died (on last scan) and new circulation is on diagnal line between Clearwater and Hayesville. I think there are some radar issues or two areas of rotation as main circulation was gone on one scan and then back with another weaker rotation in correlation with reflectivity. Checking upper scans is not helping much.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Wichita still not out of the woods... very tight, tornadic circulation definitely present right on top of Haysville (south suburbs of Wichita), and looks like it is heading for the south central city (Joyland Amusement Park area and east side).

The higher tilts (2-3 deg) are really critical this close to the radar, don't forget to check those out.