2012-04-12 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[J Trueblood]

Here's my humble attempt from the latest completed NAM run:

A trough is moving off the Rockies towards the East, further flattening the ridge currently in place over the central plains--a 65 kt Jet streak exists over NM/Col/W KS. A surface low over NE Colorado has a warm front extending south east through KS,OK,S Ark and N LA, with a dryline position on a North-South line from the low straight through the TX Panhandle and a cold front behind it.
Strong LLJ from the circulating low in Colorado will bring in warm temperatures and dewpoints near the mid 60s in OK and SW KS, reaching central KS by 00z. Due to my general overall inexperience, as well as the low CAPE values on the dryline, if I were chasing wouldn't attempt to forecast or target that area. (Although apparently drylines are notorious for putting on a show while everyone else is paying attention to the warm front)

I would focus instead on the northern target in SW Kansas where CAPE reaches > 2000 j kg^-1 in a ribbon from SW KS through W OK and Central TX. Cap doesn't appear to be a problem in any of these areas today, and with LCL heights in the target are at or around 1,000m, storms can be expected to have low bases. (I think)

0-6km shear looks great in the area of interest, with 40 kt in the Dodge City area. 0-1km helicity over 100 m^2 s^-2 in the same region exists, giving EHI values of > 1.

All of this said, I would probably try to start in Dodge City, and be prepared to head North. Any critiques on this forecast are greatly appreciated as I'm still fairly new at this!

 

[Chip Redmond]

All models agreeing on initiation somewhere in NE CO and SW NE around 22-23z. I would expect storms to stay quite discrete with excellent directional shear in the low levels and the lack of extremely strong forcing. One thing of concern is weak backing in the mid-levels that could hurt the storms ability to breath as well as perhaps hampering deep rotating updrafts. The warm front/boundary from this mornings fog deck would be a great place for a storm to latch onto and go tornadic. I would most likely start my chase near Liberal, NE at 22z and go from there. However, I lost my chase partner after waiting for a response and now would be very well behind my target area. Looks like I will be sitting this one out.

Chip

 

[Tim Marshall]

Heading to Shamrock, Tx to play the dryline.

 

[J Trueblood]

I agree with Tim. Judging by the most recent RUC output, it looks like the tornado threat in the TX panhandle is going to need to be increased.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

I agree with Tim. Judging by the most recent RUC output, it looks like the tornado threat in the TX panhandle is going to need to be increased.

True, latest RUC shows nice dryline bulge developing in the E panhandle with pooling dews, but it also shows a stout cap without much erosion. Fingers crossed!

Meanwhile, if those cells around GLD can get established, they're going to have some great helicities to work with once the low level jet cranks up in a couple hours.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

So far the day is underwhelming here near Goodland, KS -- the towers go up but struggle to stay up, quickly turning to mush. I've watched three different cells march northeast from here and they all suffered the same fate. You can see a cirrus deck creeping up from the south here, too. Hope I'm wrong, but seems like the panhandle of Nebraska is getting all the action today, what little of it there is.

 

[Hank Schyma]

High clouds are moving over the dryline in western KS boosting cap strength... We shall see if it can hold. I'm not gonna hold my breath

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm sitting in Canadian TX, chosen because it gives us a chance, at least, of hopping on convection that develops along the dryline bulge to the S while giving us a chance of moving Nward into the OK PH and far southern KS should convection develop there. So far, satellite looks unimpressive. The low clouds hung around the central and eastern OK/TX panhandle and SW KS too long, I think, hindering sfc heating. In addition, sfc Tds mixed out a bit, which doesn't help. The SPC/RUC mesoanalysis has been showing uncapped conditions in SW OK, but a look at satellite indicates that there is still some low-level stability, with widespread cloud streets. As such, I'm not sure I buy what the mesoanalysis is selling.There is thickening cirrus to our west that is beginning to overspread the dryline at the current time. The fact that it is thickening hints that there is some ascent / upward motion aloft (in contrast to cirrus that merely advects into the area). The boundary layer will begin to cool with nocturnal radiational cooling commencing soon, so chances for initiation seem to be dwindling.