2011 HotSpots

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

I guess the OP of this thread was looking for more of a specific place then what I provided with my first reply so here goes.

I think St Peter, MN will be a 'hot spot' this year. Why? Besides for the fact that its in the northern plains (which I think will be active again), they were hit by E-F3 tornadoes in 1998 and 2006 (actually in 2006 it missed the town by less then 100 yards but close enough) so maybe they are due again? I hope I'm wrong as obviously I don't want to see any town/homes hit by a tornado but it honestly wouldn't surprise me. For whatever reason (maybe the 'heat island effect') tornadic storms seem to always travel through that area (St Peter is roughly 60 miles southwest of the Twin Cities)...

 

[Rob H]

For whatever reason (maybe the 'heat island effect') tornadic storms seem to always travel through that area (St Peter is roughly 60 miles southwest of the Twin Cities)...

I never gave heat island too much credit, until I recently found out that there was a 2 degree F difference in average temperature between the metro area and Rochester to the south. Who knows how that factors in, but I think another factor is the glacial ridge.

Disclaimer - this is a rough composite I put together to show people what I'm working on. It's a map of tornado frequency by county, with topography overlaid. Maybe one day I'll build out my theory and have some real science behind it

You can see the glacial ridge (the white area) cutting a swath through the state. The periphery of the ridge seems to be a focus point for tornadic activity - and I started thinking about this when realizing that the metro area never has tornadoes, and the corridor between Wilmar and Alexandria always gets nailed. Even though the close proximity of KMPX, large number of Skywarn spotters, and well-populated area would lead you to believe the metro area would be statistically over-represented, it doesn't seem to skew the data.

 

[David C Watson]

Well I'm kinda stuck in WA cause I'm stationed there at Fort Lewis. Hopefully if I could get leave, I seriously think that this spring could have a great potential anywhere from OK, KS, MO, IL, NB. I've heard people talk a lot about IL though. That's a little far out of the way for me.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Just seen I never actually gave my prediction after starting the thread - Oops

On Point 1 - I am going with Multiple Tornadoes throughout the Year (2 or More) for the Concordia to Lincoln (Neb) Area, sorry to anyone living in that area

With it being La Nina I will go with an Outbreak or two early doors (Feb-Mar) around the Ms, Ga or even Florida areas. Then Dixie Alley for April even into Early May. Then Kansas and Missouri up towards Illinios, Iowa and Nebraska, South Dakota from Late May to Middle June.

I have a feeling Nebraska is going to be well placed for quite a few notable events this year, especially the Eastern Side.

Not seeing to much to get excited about For Texas and Oklahoma tbh, even the Panhandle areas, but hey I could be totally wrong Lol

Cheers and Have a Great Season everyone

Paul S

 

[Adam Lucio]

I would be ok with there being more of a northern plains season again this year. Less chaser traffic up there and for me its the same travel distance.

Personal bias FTW

 

[Dean Baron]

Minnesota and the Dakotas will get zero tornadoes this year, so there will be no point in anyone coming up here at any point during the season

I have a feeling our MN roads are going to be a little more crowded this coming season. No real scientific basis for this, but I have a feeling the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska might be hot. I hate myself for saying this, but I think Iowa might be hot too, because, can anyone remember the last photogenic tornado or good setup that didn't bust in Iowa?

 

[Brandon Lawson]

I'm shifting east one state. Whereas Yazoo City, MS got hammered last year, this year it will be Huntsville, AL in the early Spring. Personally, I'd like to see it be Branson, MO.

 

[Charley Kelly]

Here are a few links to GOM SST and Drought Monitor. Both also will play key roles in how the 2011 season plays out.


GOM SST-http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php
Drought Monitor-http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Really, you would like it to be in Branson, Missouri? I am as tired of "in soviet Russia" jokes as the next guy but I'd rather one of the hot spots be in better terrain. Chasing around Branson can be a nightmare, especially when trying to find quality E-W options.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

I'll go with Lincoln, Nebraska.

On a serious note, it looks to me that the southern plains season could be mediocre or worse, based on the drought situation here. Wouldn't be surprised to see another 2009-style season, to be honest.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'd have to do more reading on it, but I'd also be interested in keeping an eye on the GOM SSTs. I could see a correlation between ENSO years and La Nina years. Since the GOM is a significant source of moisture, that would be something I would add to the laundry list of comparisons.

I haven't followed the entire thread, so I don't know whether anyone has responded to this, but I've been keeping an eye on projected GOM temperatures. Last year the Gulf was forecast to be cooler than normal, and we all know how the moisture return got delayed. This year, the latest ENSO ocean temperature charts call for average water temperatures in the Gulf. Probably a good thing. I know that other factors are also involved, but all things considered, normal Gulf temps have got to be better than cooler where moisture fetch is concerned.

I might add that Caledonia, MI, will be a hotspot on a day when I'm nowhere within reach of it, simply because I live here. A few years ago a tornado passed by less than a quarter-mile from my apartment while I was driving home from a chase from a chase, and last year one spun up about eight miles southwest of here while Kurt Hulst and I were threading our way through the jungles of Barry County. I'm not sure what that proves statistically other than that I have rotten luck.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Any thoughts about soil moisture anomalies during the last couple of months? Could this have an impact on the late season up there across the Northern Plains? I was searching for any correlations, but no success.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1752

 

[Chris Carter]

I didn't think 2010 was very active, but then again i didn't have a car from May to September and i was restricted to Eastern Nebraska. 2009 I was conservative only covering Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa, I should be able to expand that to cover all of Nebraska and Iowa.

 

[ahaberlie]

In La nina pattern years, there are a lot more multi-tornado events further north. a lot of times you can see 3 or 4 long track tornadoes in IA with 3 or 4 more in Minnesota at the same time.. 15 tornado events are not incredibly uncommon.. even fairly early in the season up here.

I don't think anyone in NE Iowa will forget about the last La nina spring.. in 2008 on May 25th.. an F5 hit the town of Parkersburg.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Of course, the problem with trying to look at stuff like this is that tornadoes are sub-storm scale phenomenon which have no clue about global teleconnections! Sure, you could probably correlate thunderstorm outbreaks/big troughs, etc, with large-scale indices, but we all know how capricious tornadoes can be!