Tim Supinie
EF2
Well, might be time to start a thread for Monday.
General setup is a high-amplitude trough (for mid-late June, anyway) ejecting over the central/northern Plains Monday. As is usually the case this time of year, plenty of moisture is progged to be in place ahead of time, with 70 F+ dewpoints across the targeted area, contributing to monstrous 5000 J/kg+ CAPE values per the 17/00Z GFS. Given the GFS's high bias, I'd say 4000 J/kg+ CAPE is not out of the question, which is still more than enough. A 60-kt jet streak is progged over Nebraska and Kansas by 00Z Tuesday, yielding deep-layer shear values of around 50 to 55 kts. Taking a representative forecast sounding from southeast Nebraska, low-level shear seems to be pretty decent.
Now for the things I'm not a fan of. Firstly, the ECMWF is weaker with the jet (55 kts) than the GFS is. The GFS also has had a tendency on the last couple model runs to close off the upper trough and back the winds in the mid-to-upper levels, resulting in that annoying S-curve hodograph sneaking in. The ECMWF appears to be even worse with the mid-level backing, which could pose some storm-mode issues. Finally, the initiating boundary in Nebraska seems very diffuse, but that's getting into mesoscale issues.
I'm considering chasing this one, but there are a few things that need to work themselves out before I pull the trigger. As of right now, my favored target area is eastern Nebraska, but that obviously changes with the position of the surface boundaries.
General setup is a high-amplitude trough (for mid-late June, anyway) ejecting over the central/northern Plains Monday. As is usually the case this time of year, plenty of moisture is progged to be in place ahead of time, with 70 F+ dewpoints across the targeted area, contributing to monstrous 5000 J/kg+ CAPE values per the 17/00Z GFS. Given the GFS's high bias, I'd say 4000 J/kg+ CAPE is not out of the question, which is still more than enough. A 60-kt jet streak is progged over Nebraska and Kansas by 00Z Tuesday, yielding deep-layer shear values of around 50 to 55 kts. Taking a representative forecast sounding from southeast Nebraska, low-level shear seems to be pretty decent.
Now for the things I'm not a fan of. Firstly, the ECMWF is weaker with the jet (55 kts) than the GFS is. The GFS also has had a tendency on the last couple model runs to close off the upper trough and back the winds in the mid-to-upper levels, resulting in that annoying S-curve hodograph sneaking in. The ECMWF appears to be even worse with the mid-level backing, which could pose some storm-mode issues. Finally, the initiating boundary in Nebraska seems very diffuse, but that's getting into mesoscale issues.
I'm considering chasing this one, but there are a few things that need to work themselves out before I pull the trigger. As of right now, my favored target area is eastern Nebraska, but that obviously changes with the position of the surface boundaries.
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