jshields
I've been watching wednesday's severe wx potential and with fairly good model consistency the last couple of days, though I would start a thread. A warm front will be retreating back north across the state laying across central to possibly northern nebraska depending on which model you believe. CAPE forecasts show 2500-3500 j/kg with a weakening cap in the late afternoon. the biggest difference I see is the mid level wind fields and the strength of a mid level wave moving through at 0Z thursday. The NAM has much stronger winds at 500 mb and a stronger wave than the GFS. 0-6 km shear is near 40 kts on the GFS to over 50 kts on the NAM in central Nebraska, with a nicely curved long hodograph. thankfully with this setup we have westerly winds in the midlevels rather than those annoying backing winds and the S-shaped hodos. NAM also shows near 200 m/s2 of 0-1 helicity and over 300 m/s2 of 0-3 km. EHI values are over 3 on the 0-1, and over 8 for 0-3 EHI! the piece of energy along with a fairly decent LLJ kicking in should be enough to set off some storms late afternoon, early evening. i think the tornado potential could be pretty decent especially with anything that can form near the warm front.