2011-05-22 Joplin, MO tornado thread

[James Hilger]

I was literally following it a couple minutes behind it on I-44 and could see areas losing power as i was driving. I was getting hit with approx 60 mph inflow winds straight from the South at one point and slowed up some and could tell it was just to my NW. I made the decision to get off on Rangeline Rd instead of going up a few miles further East because i was getting worried it was going to cross the road and it was definately the right choice. I was definately being foolish being that close but like everyone else desperately wanted to see something. I didn't see power flashes or any structure at all, just getting pelted with hail. As mentioned earlier, it was very frustrating trying to make out exactly what was going on before it hit Joplin.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The lead time in Joplin was unavoidably low--some residents said five minutes--but they did know, and being right in the MO/KS/OK corner, the population was probably a lot more tornado-savvy than Tuscaloosa or Birmingham. Sadly, many of the people killed probably sought some type of shelter that they perceived to be adequate.

Just for the record, according to LSRs from the SGF NWSFO, the tornado was first reported in Joplin at 5:46 pm CDT, though a severe weather statement issued at 5:37 says that a spotter reported a tornado just outside the city of Joplin. The tornado warning for Joplin came out at 5:17 pm. So, it looks like the lead time for the closest part of Joplin was approximately 20 minutes, and perhaps a few more for the far side of town. That's above average, if I recall correctly, and is pretty good lead time.

Of course, just because Joplin was in a moderate risk area, a tornado watch was in effect, and a tornado warning was valid doesn't mean that people gave themselves a way to RECEIVE the warning. Meteorologists can be as accurate as humanly possible with tornado warnings, but some people will remain oblivious because they haven't given themselves a way to get the important information. In addition, I think any time a strong/violent tornado moves through a densely populated area, there's a very large potential for significant loss of life.

 

[Geoff Manikin]

Just for the record, according to LSRs from the SGF NWSFO, the tornado was first reported in Joplin at 5:46 pm CDT, though a severe weather statement issued at 5:37 says that a spotter reported a tornado just outside the city of Joplin. The tornado warning for Joplin came out at 5:17 pm. So, it looks like the lead time for the closest part of Joplin was approximately 20 minutes, and perhaps a few more for the far side of town. That's above average, if I recall correctly, and is pretty good lead time.

It is clear that the lead time on the warning was very, very good, so I am really annoyed that the ABC news clip has the reporter saying that there was little warning because it was wrapped in rain. It's true that there was little warning for anyone who was only going to take action with a visual or audible confirmation, but statements like the one he made imply a failure of the official warning process and are extremely misleading and irresponsible, imho.

 

[James Langford]

So, it looks like the lead time for the closest part of Joplin was approximately 20 minutes, and perhaps a few more for the far side of town. That's above average, if I recall correctly, and is pretty good lead time.

Thanks for the info Jeff. This is something I was wondering about. Why were the sirens in town not going? In Jeff P's video, you can't hear them, and he in fact is yelling at an officer to activate the sirens as the tornado enters town. Later in the video they can be heard.

 

[joel ewing]

What is under that car?

Chris, those look like pallets of either dogfood or perhaps potting soil.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

First on the scene chaser video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XltCUT5aQk

 

[Andy Wade]

Just for the record, according to LSRs from the SGF NWSFO, the tornado was first reported in Joplin at 5:46 pm CDT, though a severe weather statement issued at 5:37 says that a spotter reported a tornado just outside the city of Joplin. The tornado warning for Joplin came out at 5:17 pm. So, it looks like the lead time for the closest part of Joplin was approximately 20 minutes, and perhaps a few more for the far side of town. That's above average, if I recall correctly, and is pretty good lead time.

Of course, just because Joplin was in a moderate risk area, a tornado watch was in effect, and a tornado warning was valid doesn't mean that people gave themselves a way to RECEIVE the warning. Meteorologists can be as accurate as humanly possible with tornado warnings, but some people will remain oblivious because they haven't given themselves a way to get the important information. In addition, I think any time a strong/violent tornado moves through a densely populated area, there's a very large potential for significant loss of life.

Apologies to the NWS, I should've actually checked it instead of taking what residents reported in interviews. Interesting and sad that a solid 20-minute lead time somehow became five minutes for at least one victim, and that's something nobody can really change. I guess part of me just wants to find something--low lead time, lack of awareness, anything--to avoid the fact that some storms are essentially unsurvivable for the typical person in their paths.

 

[joel ewing]

Mike Bettes from TWC said he witnessed several fatalities.

Maybe now Bettes and the Weather Channel will drop the Godless "The Great Tornado Hunt" garbage, which draws untold numbers of newbies into the fray and onto the plains each season, after finally seeing the real results of what they've been championing.
No....I'm not bitter.

 

[Michael Reno]

Maybe now Bettes and the Weather Channel will drop the Godless "The Great Tornado Hunt" garbage, which draws untold numbers of newbies into the fray and onto the plains each season, after finally seeing the real results of what they've been championing.
No....I'm not bitter.

We watched the "raw" feed from Bettes last night as walked from car to car looking in them for people (with his mic and camera operator, of course). The first thing we thought was "are you trying to find a corpse to show on TV?" I appreciate how he said he was trying to help, but he needed to either set the gear down and get to work or stay on and tell people the news. Now, he may have been in a bit of shock, too, so I'm willing to give him a break, but you gotta know that when you do this sort of work, you're gonna have to confront this situation sooner or later, and maybe you should consider how you can best be useful beforehand. I hope he was at least able to attract some attention and rally some qualified help through his reporting.

 

[DWest]

Maybe I'm alone in this, but was anybody else surprised by how quickly it reorganized and intensified? I was tracking this one on my laptop when it happened and the thing absolutely blew up from one frame to the next. I guess you can see that in the loop posted in one of the previous pages of this thread.

 

[Fred Dearborn]

Correct me if im wrong,but it looked liked it split into two cells,and produced the tornado on the southeast corner of the cell on the east side.We were on the south side of the cell waiting for it to reorganized to our west and then bam,tornado on the southeast side.We managed to intercept just east of Joplin on 44 where debis was falling and the wallcloud south of 44.Alot of precip,but i expected that with dewpoints near 70.

 

[Mike Smith]

Maybe I'm alone in this, but was anybody else surprised by how quickly it reorganized and intensified? I was tracking this one on my laptop when it happened and the thing absolutely blew up from one frame to the next. I guess you can see that in the loop posted in one of the previous pages of this thread.

You are correct, it blew up very fast. Regarding the suggestions to try to warn of "major" versus "minor" tornadoes:

1. This was a regular, not PDS tornado watch.
2. There was nothing to indicate, ten minutes before JLN was struck that this would be an extraordinary tornado. Not much of a hook or couplet.

We do not have the skill, at this time, to separate the two. I hope we will some day.

 

[DWest]

You are correct, it blew up very fast. Regarding the suggestions to try to warn of "major" versus "minor" tornadoes:

1. This was a regular, not PDS tornado watch.
2. There was nothing to indicate, ten minutes before JLN was struck that this would be an extraordinary tornado. Not much of a hook or couplet.

We do not have the skill, at this time, to separate the two. I hope we will some day.

That's kind of what I thought too - it'd produced a few low-end couplets as it tracked over eastern Kansas, but looked like a big HP mess as it was crossing the KS/MO border. Maybe "splitting" as Fred put it, but I certainly didn't expect it to end up recycling that quickly, and as intense as it did. The whole issue of 'special' warnings for major and minor tornadoes I think is somewhat immaterial - I don't think the situation could have at all been improved with regards to the warning text, given what data was available beforehand. Anyway, that may be a lead-in to one of those (typically) nasty "tornado emergency" threads, so I think I'll abstain from any further discussion on that.

Also... I just read this in the Associated Press article on the storm found here (I believe this is fair use):

Greg Carbin, a warning coordinator for the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said that although both storms had high death tolls, the situation in Joplin was different to that in Alabama last month.

[...]

He estimated that the tornado that hit Joplin had winds of 135 to 165 mph.

Given the damage observed, especially how many trees were completely debarked and at least decently constructed buildings leveled, wouldn't this at least indicate something in the EF4 range? Any ideas as to why he's estimating lower, or is this quote perhaps too early? The article doesn't mention when they contacted Mr. Carbin.

 

[John Robinson]

Here's the first paragraph of the foxnews.com story that was online as of 12:50 PM CDT Monday:

Residents of Joplin, Mo., had only 20 minutes to take cover before a monster tornado swept through the heart of the city Sunday night, killing at least 89 people while wiping out entire neighborhoods.

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

Here's the first paragraph of the foxnews.com story that was online as of 12:50 PM CDT Monday:

Residents of Joplin, Mo., had only 20 minutes to take cover before a monster tornado swept through the heart of the city Sunday night, killing at least 89 people while wiping out entire neighborhoods.

"...only 20 minutes..." Seriously.... that was fantastic lead time and given the evolution of the storm as it crossed the state line obviously the local office in my opinion the local office took the appropriate conservative approach about Torn Warn the cell far in advance of a populated area. I can think of a lot that I can do in "...only 20 minutes..." Not the least of which is seek shelter. I wish the media would stop trying to play up the drama/danger component and report on the fact that this and other storms this year have been given more than adequate lead time but a variety of circumstances (some controllable, others not) have been in place resulting in high loss of life.