2011-04-27 MISC: AL,TN,MS,KY,OH,IN,WV,GA

Good (and of course - expected) news...

TUSCALOOSA, Alabama -- The city says the number of missing people in Tuscaloosa has dropped to 80. The number had ranged as high as 340 on Monday.

It's now 75. "Of the missing, 22 are now classified as Level 1. Mayor Walt Maddox said that means that person who reported them missing had spoken with them within two weeks of the April 27 tornado."
 
Saw that but the audio was just making my ears bleed. Still have not heard many first-hand accounts of the impact that the power outages in some communities from the earlier storms might have had on the situation. I've heard antectodal references to NWS transmitters being out in some locales and spotty electricy/internet in others. Any one heard anything specific?

I was sitting in Jasper, Al by 1pm and can tell you that the very early MCV that went through, crippled communications. I worked Hwy 78/I-22 from Hamilton to Birmingham and had trouble obtaining data through Verizon all day long. It made for a very dangerous day in that area.
 
Does that 151 include long track tornadoes that crossed office lines... as one tornado and not 2 tornadoes. I have recounted them and still only come up with 115 tornadoes when you remove the duplicate entries



Wherever I found a tornado that crossed from one CWA into another, I counted it as just one tornado. I am pretty sure that, in the 151 number, there are none that are double-counted - although there are 2 or 3 in there that may have crossed into some other CWA but haven't been surveyed in the other CWA. I have six in the database that were confirmed by damage surveys to have occurred in more than one CWA.

A couple other points. First, I believe the 148 total in the 1974 Super Outbreak was for more than one day. I pretty much followed the definition Bobby Prentice quoted from Grazulis in a thread in W & C. So with at least 151 different tornadoes, this outbreak does exceed the 1974 record. Second, the total of 151 includes only tornadoes confirmed by damage surveys - and it is possible I may have missed a handful of those. However, NWS offices can and do enter tornadoes into the "confirmed" category by means other than damage surveys, such as video evidence and reliable spotter and/or emergency manager reports. So not every tornado that ends up confirmed is confirmed by means of a damage survey. So the total for this outbreak will certainly be significantly more than 151, and other means of confirmation may explain the figure of 178 cited by CNN.
 
The weatherbrains show audio was interesting. Fascinating recollections of the experiences from that side of the table. Dr. Tim got quite upset (p.o.'d actually) towards the end of the show. Anybody else catch that? He was particularly upset with an experience he had with someone from either NSSL or SPC within the last week.
 
The NOAA's current clearinghouse page for the event at this time shows 197 tornadoes surveyed.

I'm not sure it's above board to insist the Super Outbreak was worse even if there were a larger number of tornadoes within a 24 hour period, just for that reason alone. I don't believe the Super Outbreak produced tornadoes continuously over a three-day period. As a total event, April 25-27, 2011 outbreak is unquestionably worse. I don't see how there's a reasonable debate. "Within 24 hours" is arbitrary and meaningless.
 
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More surveys out today; 170 confirmed tornadoes now on the spreadsheet. Pretty clearly a record outbreak at this point. I know there are sources indicating larger numbers surveyed, and there may well be, but what is on the spreadsheet is what I can find on the Web pages or public information statements from the NWS offices affected. If anyone knows of a surveyed tornado not on the spreadsheet, please PM me with a link to relevant documentation.
 
I'm not sure it's above board to insist the Super Outbreak was worse even if there were a larger number of tornadoes within a 24 hour period, just for that reason alone.

Pretty simple - if you're talking a 24-hr span, the SO is the worst outbreak on record. If you want to make it a 72 hour span, then this one was the worst. Depends on how you want to judge them. But it's subjective either way. The weather world doesn't operate in timeframes, those are human inventions.
 
Pretty simple - if you're talking a 24-hr span, the SO is the worst outbreak on record. If you want to make it a 72 hour span, then this one was the worst. Depends on how you want to judge them. But it's subjective either way. The weather world doesn't operate in timeframes, those are human inventions.

Well, regardless of the records, I'm most interested to see a technical report from NOAA on the instant event. It certainly deserves one. The technical report on the 1974 outbreak was a gem and well-described the synoptic conditions that preceded such an event. (It was sent from the Secretary of Commerce, presumably to his immediate superior, but I doubt Tricky Dickey circa 1974 would have been much interested in 700mb temperatures)
 
Well, that's a shame. It seems like this episode deserves a real meteorological analysis.

I'm absolutely sure it will get one. This was way too big of an event not to be studied. You will see many academic and non-academic articles published on this event in the next few years.
 
Smithville tornado videos

I'm not sure what people think of posting video in these kind of threads as there doesn't seem to be any discussional value in mine other than the interesting aspect that there seems to be very few clips of the Smithville tornado, and none of Hackleburg as it was near that community. I haven't seen these posted here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ku9NRDNOfc As the tornado was reportedly over Smithville.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVBzaPhLn2Q Peculiar surveillance-video from the Smithville PD, with a camera flying away with the carport.
 
The NOAA's current clearinghouse page for the event at this time shows 197 tornadoes surveyed.

I'm not sure it's above board to insist the Super Outbreak was worse even if there were a larger number of tornadoes within a 24 hour period, just for that reason alone. I don't believe the Super Outbreak produced tornadoes continuously over a three-day period. As a total event, April 25-27, 2011 outbreak is unquestionably worse. I don't see how there's a reasonable debate. "Within 24 hours" is arbitrary and meaningless.

The Super Outbreak also featured 6 F5 tornadoes and 24 F4 tornadoes. As best as I can determine, using the preliminary data that is available, the recent April 26-28 event produced 2 EF5 and 11 EF4 tornadoes. Both are quite obviously extreme outbreaks, both in terms of total tornadoes and percentage of all tornadoes that were violent. But considering the Super Outbreak produced a considerably higher number of violent tornadoes in a much shorter time frame, I don't see how it is "unreasonable" when others argue that it is still the most intense tornado outbreak on record. They certainly have valid reasons and a valid argument.

Also, I still don't think we will know precisely which outbreak has the highest overall tornado count until the data has been completely and thoroughly sifted through and entered into the NCDC database. While we can say there were 197 tornadoes within a 3 day period, I still have unresolved questions about whether this event was a continuous outbreak or not. I subscribe to the Grazulis method (which seems to be the accepted standard) that states for a tornado outbreak to be considered a continuous event that first, the tornadoes be produced by the same general weather system and secondly, that there not be a gap of 6 hours or more between tornado touchdowns during the event. At this point, I really don't know if the April 26-28 outbreak meets this criteria. And again, we probably won't until all of the tornado data (including times of touchdowns) make it into the official database. Only then will we be able to determine if this was one humongous, continuous outbreak that surpasses 4/3/74 in numbers, or if it was broken down into two or more separate events. But considering just how rare it is to have a legitimate "continuous" outbreak that spans 3 days or more ( I can only recall one off the top of my head---November 1992), I'm not quite ready to bump the 4/3/74 event down to #2 on the largest outbreaks list just yet.
 
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