Jeff House
Supporter
As we come to the end of August, and the start of football season, one also thinks secondary severe season. Of course Sep/Oct are not nearly as impressive as spring, but I cannot help hoping for an encore. This year with such a weak spring, the encore might actually be noticeable.
Morning extended models, both GFS and European and to some extent Canadian, showing a trough West, unsettled Plains forecast 10 days to two weeks out. I know they are just models, and today is the first day they really showed it lining up. Cannot find much ENSO correlation, which I guess is no surprise. The energy flux between the ocean and air this time of year is less significant than in spring when ENSO can be a tool. I do notice the Gulf of Alaska low trying to dig in which is better than a ridge out there. Just need it to kick some troughiness into the West. Anyone else have ideas or thoughts on a double check of the models? Analogs, teleconnections, pattern recognition or anything else is all good.
That is about all I know this morning. Spring was a whip so maybe we can catch a break in fall. Otherwise, at least we have football!
Morning extended models, both GFS and European and to some extent Canadian, showing a trough West, unsettled Plains forecast 10 days to two weeks out. I know they are just models, and today is the first day they really showed it lining up. Cannot find much ENSO correlation, which I guess is no surprise. The energy flux between the ocean and air this time of year is less significant than in spring when ENSO can be a tool. I do notice the Gulf of Alaska low trying to dig in which is better than a ridge out there. Just need it to kick some troughiness into the West. Anyone else have ideas or thoughts on a double check of the models? Analogs, teleconnections, pattern recognition or anything else is all good.
That is about all I know this morning. Spring was a whip so maybe we can catch a break in fall. Otherwise, at least we have football!
