HAltschule
EF5
As of 3:21 PM EDT...Extremely rapid thunderstorm development is occurring just north of Goodland, KS into SW Nebraska. The start of things to come....
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2008-05-29 NOW: SD/NE/KS/IA/MN/WI
- Thread starter HAltschule
- Start date
Mike Johnston
EF5
5/29/08 NOW: KS, NE, IA, SD
Convective initiation!
Cells formed and have quickly gone severe, far SW corner of Nebraska west of McCook. Mean storm motion vector NE @ 33.
Convective initiation!
Cells formed and have quickly gone severe, far SW corner of Nebraska west of McCook. Mean storm motion vector NE @ 33.
Karen Politte
EF5
5/29/08 NOW: KS/NE/IA
With towers on visible satellite forming in the clear air from western NE/NE Panhandle, into southwestern NE and a good deal of wrn KS, it is probably time to kick-start a NOW thread.
A cluster of severe storms visible on Goodland's radar is entering NE near the Benkelman area, and they are intensifying as they move northeast. These certainly scream to be watched - closely.
A regular tornado watch and a severe thunderstorm watch are in effect for western NE and western KS into NM respectively, and an MCD for tornadic supercells has been issued for central/southern portions of NE and extreme northern KS. EDIT: PDS tornado watch has been issued for the central swath and majority of NE, and northern KS.
Coincident with this, the chase armada has begun according to SN. Just look at all those folks trucking westwards along 80!
Convective initiation is also now occurring (and my keyboard can't really keep up with it - I've edited this post about 25 times in the past ten minutes) on down into western KS too. Good luck to all who are out today.
KP
With towers on visible satellite forming in the clear air from western NE/NE Panhandle, into southwestern NE and a good deal of wrn KS, it is probably time to kick-start a NOW thread.
A cluster of severe storms visible on Goodland's radar is entering NE near the Benkelman area, and they are intensifying as they move northeast. These certainly scream to be watched - closely.
A regular tornado watch and a severe thunderstorm watch are in effect for western NE and western KS into NM respectively, and an MCD for tornadic supercells has been issued for central/southern portions of NE and extreme northern KS. EDIT: PDS tornado watch has been issued for the central swath and majority of NE, and northern KS.
Coincident with this, the chase armada has begun according to SN. Just look at all those folks trucking westwards along 80!
Convective initiation is also now occurring (and my keyboard can't really keep up with it - I've edited this post about 25 times in the past ten minutes) on down into western KS too. Good luck to all who are out today.
KP
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David Wolfson
EF5
Benkelman/McCook cell is now severe warned with rotation. We're leaving Kearney for Holdredge. Game on, as Karen said.
MatthewCarman
Can we have NM,TX,OK,SD,MN and WI added to the title of this thread as severe storms and possibly tornadoes appears likely in these states aswell.
The storms in NE look nice on radar. Storms are also firing up in NM right now.
The storms in NE look nice on radar. Storms are also firing up in NM right now.
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Karen Politte
EF5
Good luck, David.
As best as the horrid radar data in that area of the country can determine, it looks like the northernmost cell (near Palisade?) may have thrown off a left-split.
Of course there are absolutely no major roads except the one that runs through Hayes Center which is N-S only - and so the best strategy may be to try and intercept it somewhere north of McCook on 83.
KP
As best as the horrid radar data in that area of the country can determine, it looks like the northernmost cell (near Palisade?) may have thrown off a left-split.
Of course there are absolutely no major roads except the one that runs through Hayes Center which is N-S only - and so the best strategy may be to try and intercept it somewhere north of McCook on 83.
KP
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Mark Farnik is coming into Maywood and is gonna try and beat the core south to McCook. Says the convection is just rock hard vertical. Nice overshooting tops. The northern most storm looks like it's already had one meso occlusion cycle/split with a brief TVS - looks to be ramping up again - 2 mesos on radar.
:edit: Mark can already see into the inflow notch - decent lowering, wall cloud with tail cloud every 5 or 10 minutes.
:edit: 2 Mark couldn't make it past the core in time and is in Stockville looking right into the notch at a wall cloud with tail cloud.
:edit3: Mark just called it in to the NWS - rapidly rotating wall cloud close to a touch down!
:edit: Mark can already see into the inflow notch - decent lowering, wall cloud with tail cloud every 5 or 10 minutes.
:edit: 2 Mark couldn't make it past the core in time and is in Stockville looking right into the notch at a wall cloud with tail cloud.
:edit3: Mark just called it in to the NWS - rapidly rotating wall cloud close to a touch down!
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Karen Politte
EF5
Main cell of significance now should be right over Stockville according to the TOR warning text. Looks a tad meaty, but it's the only show in town right now and a sure bet for seeing a sup today. All other convection down the dryline is somewhat stringy in appearance and has a long way to go yet.
It's a real pity about the lack of good road options in the McCook-Elwood-Maywood triangle. I hope somebody gets lucky and is able to find suitable roads......I'm sure some of the sectionlines are doable.
KP
It's a real pity about the lack of good road options in the McCook-Elwood-Maywood triangle. I hope somebody gets lucky and is able to find suitable roads......I'm sure some of the sectionlines are doable.
KP
David Wolfson
EF5
We're currently coming in on the storm via Eustis, Farnam, Moorfield with decent n/s options. Definite lowering visible at 260o ~20 miles with shear showing 138 kts.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Just talked to Mark - never saw a touchdown, but saw at least one occlusion cycle - it looks to have cycled with a new meso forming on the southeast flank - once that ramps up, it should be better since the storm is moving into juicer air.
Willoughby Owen
EF2
Yes wall cloud is looking rather ragged at the moment.. actually it looks like it's trying to funnel just now
nickgrillo
EF5
Nice supercell to the north of McCook. RUC mesoanalysis has LCL heights higher closer to the sfc trof/dryline and invof the convection given the stronger insolation / diabatic surface heating that has occured then further east into the warm sector, where Td depressions aren't as significant. RUC mesoanalysis has >3500j/kg of SBCAPE and very steep low-level lapse rates invof those supercells. 18z RUC KGRI forecast sounding at 00z shows an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profile for low-level mesocyclones / tornadoes with ~4000j/kg of SBCAPE and >300m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. I don't have much doubt that there will be at least a couple strong / violent tornadoes, particularly further north and east closer to the warm front where stronger ambient low-level vorticity / SRH and richer boundary layer moisture / associated lower LCL heights will further favor sustained low-level mesocyclones and tornadogenesis.
Chris Nuttall
EF5
Sittng about 5 miles north of Arapahoe...nice big wall cloud about 5 miles to my NW. Did see one dust whirl earlier, but I think it was RFD.
EDIT: Wall cloud has lost it's definition from my viewpoint...but it appears to be cycling again.
EDIT: Wall cloud has lost it's definition from my viewpoint...but it appears to be cycling again.
Willoughby Owen
EF2
Wall cloud some 15 mins ago,
David Wolfson
EF5
Currently about 5 mi. e of US283 on local roads heading east tracking lowering wall cloud to our north on local roads. Storm is now moving almost due east at around 40.
