2008-02-05 DISC: TX / AR / MO / IL / KY / TN / MS

[Randy Bowers]

To address Perry’s comment regarding many folks watching the national cable networks—that is certainly a good point. Having not watched the national coverage myself, I cannot say to what extent the national news networks were breaking into coverage of the primaries. Based on Kiel’s comments, it seems like they didn’t do a particularly good job at cut-ins. That’s a problem that needs to be address, in my opinion.

To address the mobile home issue—yes, it’s no secret that the south has a higher percentage of people who live in them. However, there are so many more factors to this event that need to be considered.

From HUN’s blog:

“We met a father of 3 who heard the warning via NOAA Weather Radio, woke up his family and ran 150 yards to a storm shelter they share with a neighbor just in time as the tornado hit. In fact, the force of the wind blew the shelter door out of his hand. He recounted in vivid detail holding onto his wife and children to keep them from being sucked out.” – From Chris Darden, SOO

“Another wonderful story was the lady who woke to the NWR tone alert and hid in an interior closet. Their two story brick home was leveled, but she survived with cuts and broken bones.” – Also from Chris Darden

Reading further, it was obvious that this event impacted Chris quite a bit. You also gain the sense of how much of an impact this event had and thus understand how so many lives could have been lost.

“I can't get the images of childrens' toys laying in rubble out of my head. Of course, there will be another "big event" to come along in the future. I, for one, won't be quick to forget February 6th or the residents of Lawrence County that were impacted by this one.”

This blog entry is worth reading.

And as for taking a deep breath, I’ll take a deep breath when less people are killed in significant tornado events such as Tuesday's.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'm not sure anyone thus far has invoked a regional-stereotype explanation for the death toll ("dumb Southerners"), so I'm not sure where or why that idea got started. Seems overly defensive on the part of those who brought it up.

On that note, I have to say, it seems just about every aspect of a typical Southeast outbreak is working against efforts to keep people safe:

- Often after-dark
- Often during the cool season when, right or wrong, many believe tornadoes are unlikely
- Extremely fast storm motions
- Poor terrain for visibility
- Poor visibility/messy HP character of the storms themselves
- Greater/more spread out rural population

Taking this into consideration, I'm not so sure awareness is much worse in the South than in the Plains; or at least it's difficult to accurately discern if that's the case based solely on the higher death tolls. The same level of awareness that saves you from a 4:00 PM cone put down by a 30 mph classic supercell with 1000 m LCL's in May in Kansas may be completely insufficient in a nasty outbreak like this Tuesday's.

Plus, I have to say, I've seen plenty of signs of pathetic cluelessness in the Plains, too. I once ran into an older woman who claimed to have been a survivor of the May 3 event in Moore. She said she took shelter in an interior room just in the nick of time after seeing the wedge approaching from less than a mile away. Her explanation for why she didn't heed advance warning? She had "heard" on the news that the tornado had already "passed by" Moore and was now moving on to Bridge Creek - 10 miles to her southwest. If this doesn't demonstrate the fact that some people are beyond saving even in the face of modern warning systems, I don't know what does.

I guess my point is that the explanation for higher death tolls in the SE need not rely on the intelligence or socioeconomic status of that region's inhabitants, so there's really no reason to get up in arms about it!

 

[Karen Politte]

Karen, thank you. That was beautifully written. I thought I would have something to add, but I kept reading and you pretty much covered it.

This was the cover of The Batesville Daily Guard yesterday. I assume it's okay to post this photo, since credit is given. This is a captured video still taken by Chris Williams from Lunerburg, AR, which is sw of Sage & Zion, at 6:20 Tuesday. I believe he was about 5 miles from the tornado when he got his video (KAIT-8 Jonesboro is attempting to track down the video today -- if/when they do, I am sure it will be available online). I was about 2 miles away when I saw it; at that time it had more of a stove-pipe look to the base, with the wedge shape on the sides. Judging by the damage at the place where I saw it, I think it may have been lifting slightly at that time. The damage at this area was through heavy forest, and the tops are now sheared out of the trees for a good ways, and probably 1/4 mile wide.

EDIT: I forgot to say that this was captured during a lightning flash; he had back-lighting at the time, and there was more daylight at 6:20 than when I saw it at around 6:35.

Heidi,

This is a spectacular image. I would like to research more about it. I'm stunned at the abundant daylight this far northeast of Clinton on the evening of Feb. 5th. What else does that newspaper article say with respect to the location of this photograph/video still? I cannot locate Lunerburg AR, but I HAVE found Lunenburg AR - which is SSW of Melbourne AR and I am assuming that this is the correct place. Perhaps you could fill me in? Did the photographer give any other details? Time? I thought the tornado was hitting Clinton right at dusk - and Lunenburg has to be at least 20 miles NE of Clinton.

This image is absolutely amazing - I'm surprised that I haven't seen it before now. I am sure that it will be distributed wider and wider once it receives publicity. Somebody HAS to get their hands on that video.

KL

 

[Perry Williams]

Fantastic point that I don't think is being considered by many (myself included).I didn't think about the fact that many people were probably watching cable news networks that night either. As you noted, it would have been interesting to have seen the number of casualties if the outbreak had occurred the day before or the day after Super Tuesday. Even this, though, continues to harken on the need for people to own weather radios! In many rural areas, I can only assume that outdoor warning sirens are not common, which further yet supports the necessity of a weather radio (and, possibly, more reverse 911 systems).

Do you (or other members) know how some of the local TV stations handled the severe weather risk the day before? I wonder if many of them mentioned it on their nightly news. I would certainly hope it would have been mentioned as a "pay attn to the weather!" day given the MDT risk in place on the Day 2 outlook. I watched CNN and MSNBC most of the Tuesday evening and night, but they didn't start to give much (if any) attn to the outbreak until ~10 pm.

Thanks Jeff! I live in the metro Atlanta, GA area.....even though this area was never highlighted in a moderate or high risk area by SPC, both evening newscasts I watched on Monday mentioned the possibility of damaging storms in this area late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Several friends are meteorologists in northern Alabama; I know they were very concerned about the possibility of damaging tornadoes occurring in their viewing areas during the overnight hours (Huntsville-Decatur; Birmingham), and related this concern to their viewing audience.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

This is a warning:

Any further discussion or reaction to the controversial remark that appeared several pages back is prohibited and will result in administrative action. Our rules specifically prohibit users from using the forums to impose their own personal standards on other users. This kind of thing not only starts flame wars but derails the topic and regurgitates the controversy. Discussing it in Stormtrack Community is not a solution as it still violates the rules.

If you don't like what someone says, contact a moderator privately and forget about it. If you don't like a person's comments, you have an Ignore List in your User Control Panel. Use it. There's plenty of other great points here to discuss. We do not look favorably on controversial posts and don't let them go unnoticed, but on the same token we are not going to spend our time deleting everything that can be construed as insensitive.

Discussion of the socioeconomic factors is fine, but keep it on topic and leave matters of someone else's taste or sensitivity to the staff.

Tim

 

[John Farley]

Jeff and Perry,
Good point on the political coverage and cable networks. I have often wondered why the cable companies do not find a way of broadcasting some type of warning, tone or otherwise, to advise people to tune to their local stations for more info. I am sure the technology is there.

This issue came up on WX-Chase as well, so I will paste in a post I made there about this issue:

"Not sure how widespread this is, but in our area the cable systems can break in
on all cable channels to give storm warnings and other emergency information.
They have "required tests" on a regular basis. I thought this was mandated
nationwide now, but maybe not. I do know this system exists at least in
southwest Illinois and northern New Mexico, as I have seen these periodic tests
in both of these areas, but I am not sure whether or not it exists everywhere.
Thought it did, but maybe not."

Since I made that post there was a response saying the capability exists many places but is inconsistently applied. So maybe what is needed is consistent nationwide application. Clearly, the technology is there.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Whoah whaoh guys. Settle down. No where did I stereotype in my post. Heck, I'd be the pot calling the kettle black considering I spent half my childhood in North Carolina and South Carolina and still have family in NC. I think you need to reread the last couple sentences of my post (as Kiel seemed to get my point sufficiently).

What does one have to do to convince people in these states that late winter/early spring is "showtime" for tornadoes? Although we can certainly improve our understanding of QLCS tornadoes and improve POD/FAR for tornado warnings in general, one can't help but think the problem is more sociological rather than meteorological.

I absolutely realize that some deaths are not preventable, even given people take adequate shelter. THAT SAID, I know for certain at least some (maybe a majority) of them were. In addition, death rates for even strong tornadoes is pretty low (see the Union University campus). What it comes down to is educating the public on the dangers of tornadoes (when, where, etc.) AND the limits of our present warning making skill. Heck, I think many of you touched on that after I implied it with my sociological comment.

I could list pages of quotes from people interviewed that demonstrate we have work to do. I also plenty of quotes from people that attempted "natural selection" and lived to tell about it.

BTW: I stand by my description as being natural selection (but please note I didn't mean for this to be a blanket description). If there is a legitimate threat on your life, wouldn't you take precautions? It's no different than people killed in small accidents because they didn't strap their seatbelt on. If I were to move to California, the first thing I would do is learn about earthquakes/wildfires.

As a side, this has nothing to do with the south although Brett made a good list of reasons of why the south probably feels the biggest hurt. Last summer we had an EF-4 tornado in my county. One person was killed. This person was in a mobile home. His wife heard the warning and sought shelter (outside of the park) with friends. Her husband was stubborn and stayed behind with the "it won't happen here" mentality. Unfortunately, he paid for his decision with his life.

My apologies to those that took offense. Obviously I feel bad for those that lost loved ones. That said, it frustrates me when we do almost a perfect job meteorologically and yet we still end up with high death tolls.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

For the record, Aaron posted that response within minutes of my own post preventing further discussion of the controversy, so we are going to let it stand. No more comments about it please except between each other in PM.

Tim

 

[Rich Thompson]

Deaths in well-anticipated tornado outbreaks are frustrating, but I think they're almost unavoidable. Most of us watch the weather 24/7, but how many have had to make a life or death decision regarding a tornado after dark? I haven't, and I hope I never do.

Lots of factors contribute to someone being injured/killed, ranging from their awareness/weather experience, available shelter, available escape routes, visibility, time of day/season, and part of the country (how that impacts construction, weather awareness, etc.). It's difficult to say which of these plays the biggest role in any particular situation, and we can't ask someone who's no longer with us.

I seem to recall that the 3 May 99 tornado in the OKC area damaged/destroyed ~10,000 structures, and about 30,000 people resided within the damage path. Roughly 30 fatalities converts to 0.1% death rate in a large, violent tornado. Awareness was pretty high, it was before dark, and storm motion (~25 kt) allowed more time to react. Still, 30 lives were lost. To totally avoid deaths, we'd need to have everyone in the F2+ damage areas leave prior to the tornado, but we don't know those *exact* areas even seconds prior to the tornado! So, we'd have to evacuate 5 to 10 times (just a guess) the number of people that would be impacted, or *everyone* needs underground or reinforced shelter. The latter suggestion is the only thing I see as possible, *if* such structures were required and/or subsidized. That still doesn't account for folks on the road. All in all, it's surprising that *only* 30 people died.

I can understand the feeling of helplessness or frustration. I watched the radar images Tuesday evening and figured there was no way there wouldn't be fatalities. But what else can be done, aside from continuing to work with people to convey the threats?

Rich T.

 

[Randy Bowers]

I wanted to address a few of the questions that Jeff posed...

From a SOCIOLOGICAL perspective, though, the question is how the warnings were received, and what people did when they received them.

From my prospective, having lived in both Oklahoma and Tennessee, I can say that the method at which warnings are received is quite different. The media in Oklahoma is substantially more aggressive with their coverage. Live images of the actual tornado during severe weather coverage are much less frequent in the Nashville market, for example. This is due to the fact that it is much more difficult for the local media to obtain these images due to terrain, convective mode, and frequency of nighttime tornadoes, much the same that it is difficult for chasers to have a successful chase in that area.

The ability for people to actually see the tornado live from Ranger 9, or KFOR’s tower-cam is a big factor, most likely. Psychologically speaking, seeing a large and violent wedge tornado does more than a scientific explanation from the local television met as to why there is an oddly shaped polygon over your county.

What did people do when they heard the sirens?

The population distribution in Tennessee is much different than in Oklahoma. Tennessee could still largely be considered rural, with large population centers such as Memphis and Nashville analogous to Oklahoma City and Tulsa. However, the population distribution differences lie outside of these major metropolitan areas. In Oklahoma, a rural county usually has most of its population concentration very near its county seat, with outlying portions of the county being rather rural farmland. In Tennessee, this is not necessarily the case. Population of a rural county is often scattered throughout the entire county with somewhat more concentration of population near the county seats.

Notice in the above image from Google that 5-20 acre tracks with a modest ranch home (and, yes, in some cases a mobile home), are common. This makes tornado sirens much less effective than in Oklahoma.

Also, notice the west-southwest to east-northeast oriented road. Tennessee roads are not on a grid as they are in Oklahoma. There's more opportunity for a tornado to parallel a road with a concentration of population in Tennessee than Oklahoma, if you consider the typical direction that many tornadoes travel.

How many of the deaths occurred when people went outside to try to "find" the tornado?

This certainly could have been a factor that contributed to the number of deaths. However, you can argue that people in the South have accepted that they wouldn’t be able to see it and thus opt to take shelter rather than stepping outside for a glimpse.

If we are talking about mobile home parks, how many people took shelter at the home parks' tornado shelters (if they had shelters)?

Tornado shelters in mobile home parks are undoubtedly a big issue. This is something that Dr. Doswell has commented on extensively in many of his presentations. It remains to be seen how much of a factor this was in Tuesday’s event. But, at this point it doesn’t appear that large number of deaths occurred due to folks remaining in their mobile homes as was the case on November 6th 2005 in Evansville, Indiana.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

I read in the newspaper today where the Governor of Alabama was reporting that there are numerous rural locations throughout Alabama and other states that are still without weather warning sirens and that not everyone can afford to purchase weather radios. <(paraphrased) This is obviously true here and throughout numerous other areas throughout the U.S. As has been mentioned before, not everyone has the enthusiasm we do about severe weather and not everyone, sadly, can see it appropriate or feasible to be able to afford to spend the money on weather warning devices.
Warnings and education obviously play a large part in the overall picture of helping to eliminate some of the deaths and injuries. Maybe through our work, some type of charitable work sometime down the road, and some of our other efforts, we can all play a part in helping to save some of these lives that are lost each year.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

Heidi updated the post about the picture to say that it was a vidcap with lightning and back lighting responsible for how it looks. Its certainly not easy to tell with the quality but as of right now I am skeptical to its authenticity.

EDIT: Definitely authentic. Kevin Ash posted this link to the video its from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVmCvA6ujc

 

[Brian Emfinger]

from NWS Little Rock today:

A MEMBER OF THE QUICK RESPONSE TEAM WAS IN ARKANSAS TODAY TO
EVALUATE DAMAGE FROM ATKINS TO CLINTON...MOUNTAIN VIEW...AND
HIGHLAND. A SINGLE TORNADO MAY HAVE TRACKED THROUGH THESE
AREAS...WITH THE TORNADO GIVEN AN INITIAL RATING OF AT LEAST EF3.
THE RATING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO EF4.

 

[Kevin Ash]

Here is a 28 second video clip from Izard County, AR. The picture posted earlier from the newspaper is a capture from 14 seconds into this video. You also get a good glimpse of the tornado again near the end at 25 seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVmCvA6ujc

Also found some video from Oxford, MS that shows some great structure and some close lightning strikes. Be warned that if you have kids around or are offended by bad language you'll want to turn the sound down.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3LVeCqEtRA

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I cannot locate Lunerburg AR, but I HAVE found Lunenburg AR - which is SSW of Melbourne AR and I am assuming that this is the correct place. Perhaps you could fill me in?

I've talked to Karen about this already, but in case anyone else was wondering: On my DeLorme topo map it says Lunerburg. On the Batesville Daily Guard it says Lunenburg. I trusted DeLorme, because, well, I've read the local newspapers in the past and have come to expect typos and misprints!