2011-05-25 FCST: MO/ARK/LA/TX/IL/IN/TN/MS/KY

[Drew.Gardonia]

a MDT RISK for MO/ARK/LA/TX/IL/IN/TN/MS/KY paves the way for continued severe weather from the central plains into the MS River Valley for Wednesday. The 00Z Run + 18 NAM run shows CAPE rates ranging from 2000-4500 j/kg, with minimal CAP should aid in supercell initiation tomorrow afternoon across the region, with the likelihood of tornadoes and damaging hail. Dewpoints in the uppers 60's and lower 70's combined with diurnal heating should provide the instability and ample moisture necessary to fire storms off the dryline later in the day. Low level jet is not impressive, but the upper level jet looks to ramp up in the 60 kts range and will hopefully help overcome the lack of low level jet. 0-3km EHI of 3.50-7.0, with 0-1km EHI of 1.0-2.5 should provide enough helicity to assist rotation within the storms. Soundings for just northwest of Little Rock look promising and the hodographs are nicely rounded in support of tornadic activity with storm motions of 35-40kts.

Unless things change, an area between Little Rock and Memphis will be my target area tomorrow, as this will be my final attempt at a chase for next few weeks (unless of course something pops close to home on my day off work). The terrain there is nice and flat and visibility is pretty good and it looks to be prime for tornadic supercells.

I will look at the RUC and the NAM again in the morning, and make adjustments as necessary to see where the dryline sets up at.

please feel free to make corrections and observations in regards to my forecast as needed (this helps me learn! thank you!).

 

[DWest]

It appears that your chosen chase target area is a bit west of what the SPC is thinking, as they went ahead and upgraded part of the moderate risk area to high risk with the 13z outlook along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers from Memphis northward, citing a 30% tor probability region. I'm not sure what kind of navigation issues people may have along that stretch of country, though. Sunny here just east of Rolla, MO - you can really feel the atmosphere recharging as it's rather sticky and warm, probably enhanced by some evaporation of overnight rains...CAPE values aren't at all a surprise.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

Yes, with the High Risk Area issued, I have adjusted my target to about 50 miles SW of Memphis for initiation, everything's going through the roof on twister data, and looking like an early afternoon initiation around 17Z, plan on following this one right back up into Nashville.

edit: I will be streaming live from the car, so tune in this afternoon when initiation begins to occur.


http://www.ustream.tv/channel/funnels-r-us-live-storm-chase-stream

 

[Benjamin Smith]

Confirmed tornadoes in the KC area about an hour ago and a confirmed tornado on the ground in Sedalia right now.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

sitting here west of Jackson, TN on exit 60 hwy just off I-40. Storms are beginning to fired in N. Central Ark, expecting initiation within the next hour or two.

chase stream is up (see above post for the link).


Jackson looks like a good target, since it's usually prone to tornadic storms, and it's in the high risk area, so that;s where I'm sitting while waiting on initiation.

Visible Sat showing storms exploding in Nrn Ark and Southern Missouri, cant count the number of warnings out, the southern end of this trough is beginning to fluctuate towards MS, LA and TN, should see initiating begin before long.