2008-02-05 DISC: TX / AR / MO / IL / KY / TN / MS

[Heidi Farrar]

Karen, thank you. That was beautifully written. I thought I would have something to add, but I kept reading and you pretty much covered it.

This was the cover of The Batesville Daily Guard yesterday. I assume it's okay to post this photo, since credit is given. This is a captured video still taken by Chris Williams from Lunerburg, AR, which is sw of Sage & Zion, at 6:20 Tuesday. I believe he was about 5 miles from the tornado when he got his video (KAIT-8 Jonesboro is attempting to track down the video today -- if/when they do, I am sure it will be available online). I was about 2 miles away when I saw it; at that time it had more of a stove-pipe look to the base, with the wedge shape on the sides. Judging by the damage at the place where I saw it, I think it may have been lifting slightly at that time. The damage at this area was through heavy forest, and the tops are now sheared out of the trees for a good ways, and probably 1/4 mile wide.

EDIT: I forgot to say that this was captured during a lightning flash; he had back-lighting at the time, and there was more daylight at 6:20 than when I saw it at around 6:35.

I hope it is okay to say this, too, but ST member Jeff Smith has organized a relief effort through his church in the Tulsa area. They're planning to be here tomorrow around lunch time. I cannot express how this affects me on a personal level. This community really needs the help.

 

[Terry Tyler]

One dumb southerner that hopefully will someday learn how to pull my head out of my posterior, buy some shoes, and get my teeth fixed. Maybe I'll eventually move up to a double wide from my single wide, too.

lol, you guys are messed up...

you actually want to blame those people for being killed, and then have the balls to call them ignorant?

take a look at those homes...it doesnt matter who the hell you are...you would not be able to survive the storm...no matter what your education, socio-economic status or whatever...

i think its rude, and unethical to make remarks like "natural seletion" against people who have lost their entire lives and all their property...making fun of southerners and keeping that "ignorant white trash hillybilly" attitude is disrespectful and unintelligent...

i just cant believe you have the nuts to come out and make fun of a major national tragedy like that...some balls...

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.
Pretty timely considering a recent paper in WAF concerning killer tornadoes:

Karen,
Your thoughts on this are much more reasonable and I believe accurate than a flawed concept of evolution pertaining to "natural selection." Using that thought process, the entire picture could be reversed and these people affected by a disaster could say that we have not learned over the years to even get out of the weather. As in: Taking pictures and video of standing out in storms in high winds, chasing storms, taking certain risks that may lead to possible injury or death just to fed our desires, fulfill some of our job requirements, or to enhance the science of weather.
Everyone's focus and understanding should be that natural disasters will always occur. Sadly, deaths and injuries inevitably will happen given the degree of the intensity of storms and the unfinished science of studying about these types of weather phenomena. As in evidenced in countless photos, videos, and other verified documentation, natural disaster deaths and injuries occur regardless of the type of structure or locale in which one lives.
We should be focused on helping the people affected, whether through our storm documentations, education, or by any other worthwhile means of assistance.
We do not need to be throwing stones at people because of their social or economic class and status that may lead one to "believe" is the cause of death and injuries.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Everyone take a deep breath! Some are starting to get defensive, and it's important to keep personal attacks and/or snarks out of this forum. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but throwing insults at another member will be grounds for an infraction.

I think most of what some have been saying is that it's likely that SOME of those who died were not following prudent safety procedures. Unless anyone wants to argue that every single person who died did so while hunkered down in a bath tub, covered by a mattress, in a bathroom located near the center of the house, then I think we can all agree that it's likely that some people did not heed the warning. I don't think anyone in here has thus far said that all deaths were "stupid people". Yes, I'm sure many folks took shelter and followed safety procedures that are prudent when a tornado is likely coming your way, but I certainly think that some people took the "it won't happen to me" and didn't do anything.

Not all of these were EF5s that obliterated every single thing above the ground. Frankly, we don't know enough about where, when, and how the all the deaths occurred to say much one way or the other right now. Unfortunately, you can't interview those who died, so there's not much of a way to figure out what they were thinking. Again, I'm sure many did hunker down as recommended by the NWS (and common sense), but I don't think it's "stupid" to assume that some people did not. Just because a few pics show very significant damage, does that mean that the deaths that occurred by that tornado occurred in that same spot those pics were taken? Do you know that the deaths occurred right where the pictures were taken? Perhaps a death occurred on the periphery of the tornado, when it was considerably weaker. Again, not saying this was the case, but we just don't know enough about ALL of the deaths to know for sure.

Finally, who said anything about "hillbilly" ignorant southerners? The same "it won't happen to me" mentality (not entirely unreasonable, given the extremely small risk of ever being hit by a tornado!) is likely shared by many households in this country. I haven't read anything yet that attributes this attitude exclusively to "southerners".

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I would not be surprised to see an EF-5 rating for the Van Buren Co., AR tornado, that is some incredbile damage, i.e., the Jeep or whatever it was.

Just for the record, the Jeep is in Zion, in Izard Co. I haven't seen that one yet. There are a few side roads I won't even go down because it looks so bad. It does seem that things are leaning in the direction of EF-5 in Clinton, though, which is Van Buren Co. There are some areas outside of Zion that I have seen that could be EF-4. It will be very interesting to see what the LZK crew determines.

 

[Randy Bowers]

Finally, who said anything about "hillbilly" ignorant southerners? The same "it won't happen to me" mentality (not entirely unreasonable, given the extremely small risk of ever being hit by a tornado!) is likely shared by many households in this country. I haven't read anything yet that attributes this attitude exclusively to "southerners".

Perhaps that wasn't stated, but it was implied, I felt. Nevertheless, to say that people react differently in the south than in other tornado-prone areas may be true to some degree, but there are many other factors to consider. From experience I can say that people in Tennessee were VERY aware of what was to come this past Tuesday. Awareness is not the issue here. Furthermore, I've seen from previous high-end events (5/18/95, 4/16/98, 11/15/05, 4/7/06) that people in the south do indeed pay attention and take it very seriously--as seriously as anyone in Oklahoma would take it.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Hey Guys. This includes myself. We need to stop this mess before we let the uneducated and bigoted mentality of one person get us all in trouble on the forum. The warning need to be issued to the originating party who took the jab at a "perceived class" of people and that will hopefully stop his tirades against someone else.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Hey Guys. This includes myself. We need to stop this mess before we let the uneducated and bigoted mentality of one person get us all in trouble on the forum. The warning need to be issued to the originating party who took the jab at a "perceived class" of people and that will hopefully stop his tirades against someone else.

I think there is some misunderstanding of Aaron Kennedy's post here. He quoted a published article, and he mentions that many of the deaths may be caused more by sociological issues than meteorological issues. As was noted, this event was forecast almost as well as it could have been (mentioned on Day 4-8 outlook, MDT risk on Day 2, HIGH risk on Day 1, PDS tornado watches out hours ahead of time, tornado warnings lead time was very good in most cases, etc). So, from a meteorological and warning system standpoint, the event was handled almost as well as it could have been. So, when it's well known that a tornado outbreak is likely (and occurring), how do we reduce fatalities in outbreaks like this one? If the warnings are out, if the TV stations are going wall-to-wall, how else do you tell people to heed the warning? Walker Ashley's article addresses such social factors as the relatively high density of mobile homes as a possible reason for the relatively high death count in similar outbreaks. Stats are stats, and I don't think many in here would argue that mobile homes are safer than most permanent homes. Statistically, deaths are much more likely in mobile homes than in permanent structures. In addition, statistics show that tornado outbreaks are more likely to occur after dark in the southern US, which means that people may need to take additional steps to ensure that they can receive warnings when they may be asleep.

More publications such as that by W. Ashley are needed to help understand the casualties that occur in various parts of the country in order to formulate ways to reduce such deaths.

 

[Perry Williams]

This may seem mean and cruel, but one can't help but think "natural selection". The event was well forecasted, and from what I can tell, warnings had ample lead time. The few reports I saw mentioned deaths in mobile home parks... hmm what a surprise.

Let's wait and see what the circumstances of the tornado victims were and final intensity of the tornadoes before automatically assuming the large death toll is due solely to mobile homes being struck. These tornadoes were very intense and moving over 60 mph in some cases; the deadliest tornadoes in Tennessee and both Alabama killers occurred well after dark. In addition, this outbreak occurred on an evening when many residents of the affected areas were tuned to national cable networks watching coverage of the Super Tuesday primaries; many were thinking only about politics......not the rapidly approaching deadly storms. IMHO if these tornadoes had occurred on Monday or Wednesday evening and night, the death toll would have been considerably less.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

IMHO if these tornadoes had occurred on Monday or Wednesday evening and night, the death toll would have been considerably less.

Fantastic point that I don't think is being considered by many (myself included).I didn't think about the fact that many people were probably watching cable news networks that night either. As you noted, it would have been interesting to have seen the number of casualties if the outbreak had occurred the day before or the day after Super Tuesday. Even this, though, continues to harken on the need for people to own weather radios! In many rural areas, I can only assume that outdoor warning sirens are not common, which further yet supports the necessity of a weather radio (and, possibly, more reverse 911 systems).

Do you (or other members) know how some of the local TV stations handled the severe weather risk the day before? I wonder if many of them mentioned it on their nightly news. I would certainly hope it would have been mentioned as a "pay attn to the weather!" day given the MDT risk in place on the Day 2 outlook. I watched CNN and MSNBC most of the Tuesday evening and night, but they didn't start to give much (if any) attn to the outbreak until ~10 pm.

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Jeff,
I will make one more reply to this and then I am done. There was not an argument or issue in statistics of what type structure contributed to the total number of deaths. I feel the problem came about because of a bigoted and uneducated remark pertaining to "Natural Selection" being to blame for deaths and how and what "states" these people lived. Read his statement, how it was written, and see what the actual definition is of "natural selection." Obviously this type of bigoted comment has offended many people, otherwise why did so many respond in the manner we did? If this is not true, than I might as well say that because I have a Master's Degree, two Bachelor's Degrees, live in a brick house and am twice as old as the one who wrote that, than I am less likely to be killed in a tornado and I am twice as smart. Doesn't make much sense, does it?

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Jeff and Perry,
Good point on the political coverage and cable networks. I have often wondered why the cable companies do not find a way of broadcasting some type of warning, tone or otherwise, to advise people to tune to their local stations for more info. I am sure the technology is there.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

I feel the problem came about because of a bigoted and uneducated remark pertaining to "Natural Selection" being to blame for deaths and how and what "states" these people lived. Read his statement, how it was written, and see what the actual definition is of "natural selection." Obviously this type of bigoted comment has offended many people, otherwise why did so many respond in the manner we did?

Aaron was referencing comments that people on the news were stating that they received no warning. His comments were aimed more towards to the people who supposedly received no warning when this event was so well forecasted and warned for. I don't think he was making any comments towards someone's class (as Jeff has noted); further, as Jeff noted, Aaron was quoting a study that came to certain conclusions about this area of the country (as Jeff also noted). So, like Jeff said, everyone just breathe. Further, if Aaron's post was so offensive why did it take nearly 2 days and several pages of posts for it to be brought up?! Exactly...so calm down.

I think there are some important issues (this maybe outside the scope of the DISC thread , though I would argue for this event it is not, but since it's being discussed here I'll just chime in) brought up: what the hell was the national media (minus the Weather Channel) doing on this event?! There were umpteen million (exaggeration) tornado warnings out and they kept coming out for several hours and they kept spreading across the country? At what point do the national networks think "Hey, this might be important" Regardless of the elections--I mean seriously how many times can they repeat who is projected to win a state--how did the national media not jump on an obvious real-time, life-threatening situation?! I think it's pretty pathetic that even the next day it was difficult to get info of the damage off their pages due to the elections and the results of Heath Ledger's autopsy (OMFG!). I don't think they really jumped on it until they had nice "pretty" pictures of the damage. Overall, I think they local media outlets did great...not so much for their national partners.

 

[Karen Politte]

I think there is some misunderstanding of Aaron Kennedy's post here. He quoted a published article, and he mentions that many of the deaths may be caused more by sociological issues than meteorological issues. As was noted, this event was forecast almost as well as it could have been (mentioned on Day 4-8 outlook, MDT risk on Day 2, HIGH risk on Day 1, PDS tornado watches out hours ahead of time, tornado warnings lead time was very good in most cases, etc). So, from a meteorological and warning system standpoint, the event was handled almost as well as it could have been. So, when it's well known that a tornado outbreak is likely (and occurring), how do we reduce fatalities in outbreaks like this one?

Jeff,

I've no desire to get enbroiled in a right vs. wrong or an argument about who said what - but I do feel that you've exemplified my previous points quite well. I feel that we are still thinking from a CHASER'S standpoint - not a civilian's. I work with 35+ common-or-garden Arkansans on a day-to-day basis and I can guarantee you that not one of them knows what a Day 1 Outlook is, a PDS watch is, or knows the exact meaning of a high risk, or even knows of the existence of sites such as THIS, let alone how to utilize them. Case in point - over the past two years, I have sent out hundreds of emails at my workplace, linking to severe weather resources at SPC and the NWS when a severe event is in the making. No matter how many people I write to and no matter how many 3-page emails I send to my colleagues telling them where the best and most reliable source of warning and watch information can be found - they STILL come to me on the morning of a severe event and say "Oh Karen - I saw the weather this morning on Channle Eleven and Fox O'Brien says it's going to get real bad up our way sometime today - right??". Deeeeeep breath. Therefore, by posting about these facts - we are indeed only "preaching to the choir", nothing more. We can wax lyrical about how amazing the SPC's Day 2 and Day 1 outlooks were and how they "nailed it" here on ST or WX-CHASE or CFDG or WUnderground or any other of the wx forums - but the fact remains that we are not the public. We are not the people in Clinton, AR who now have no home left.

And, for what it's worth, I tend to agree with Randy etc. regarding Aaron's post way back on page 4 or wherever it was. His points are true to a certain degree - but his delivery was pretty poor and the odd comment about our good old ST buddy "natural selection" was not only a bit harsh on the families who have lost loved ones to this outbreak but also rather offensive to certain people.

KL

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Jeff,

I've no desire to get enbroiled in a right vs. wrong or an argument about who said what - but I do feel that you've exemplified my previous points quite well. I feel that we are still thinking from a CHASER'S standpoint - not a civilian's. I work with 35+ common-or-garden Arkansans on a day-to-day basis and I can guarantee you that not one of them knows what a Day 1 Outlook is, a PDS watch is, or knows the exact meaning of a high risk, or even knows of the existence of sites such as THIS, let alone how to utilize them. Therefore, by posting about these facts - we are indeed only "preaching to the choir", nothing more. We can wax lyrical about how amazing the SPC's Day 2 and Day 1 outlooks were and how they "nailed it" here on ST or WX-CHASE or CFDG or WUnderground or any other of the wx forums - but the fact remains that we are not the public. We are not the people in Clinton, AR who now have no hom
KL

Karen,

We're still saying the same thing. From a METEOROLOGY standpoint, this event was handled almost as well as possible. I used the SPC outlooks, watches, and warnings as examples of how the meteorology/science part of the event was anticipated, forecast, and warned.

From a SOCIOLOGICAL perspective, though, the question is how the warnings were received, and what people did when they received them. What did people do when they heard the sirens?
If there were no sirens, how many people had a weather radio to receive the warning?
For those who knew they were under a tornado warning, how many people actually took action?
If people went outside to work for a little bit, did they know there was a risk of tornadoes, and what did they do to ensure they would receive warnings while they were out-and-about?
How many of the deaths occurred when people went outside to try to "find" the tornado?
If we are talking about mobile home parks, how many people took shelter at the home parks' tornado shelters (if they had shelters)?
If we are talking about permanent homes, WHERE did people take shelter?
Did people go to someone else's home if they felt their home was unsafe (no basement, no center room, no shelter, etc)?
If people knew they were under a tornado watch, and they knew there was a tornado outbreak earlier, how many went to bed without any way to receive the warning?

There are a myriad of questions that need to be asked to figure out how to reduce life loss. Of course, some people likely just got unlucky and had to face an extremely strong tornado that left a much reduced chance of survival. But I have a feeling that many deaths will not be from "unsurvivable situations". Many people have survived direct hits from even EF5/F5 tornadoes, so there really isn't too much that truly is "unsurvivable" (really only the "foundation wiped clean" events with no basement, underground shelter, or safe room). Yes, again, SOME situations are difficult to survive, but I think it's much more common than not for there to be a "best action plan" that would significant reduce the risk of death if enacted.

Most of this is what I'll call the "action" part of the warning system. The issuance part of the warning system (largely consisting of the NWS, SPC, and local media outlets)did it's job. The action part (the public who receive the warnings and must act upon those warnings) appears not to have gone so smoothly.

EDIT: Per Randy's post below -- it's great to hear that some (presumably, many) did take precautions and did take action when they heard the warning!