2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Austin Ivey]

Most of you probably know how to access the official observing sites via the NOAA website but, so you don't have to search for it, here is the link to the international airport on Grand Cayman.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

The weather observations are still current. It will be interesting to see when it stops transmitting.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

New Vortex is out. 910mb, now...

218
URNT12 KNHC 120005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0005Z
B. 18 DEG 09 MIN N
79 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2295 M
D. 50 KT
E. 314 DEG 102 NM
F. 022 DEG 146 KT
G. 288 DEG 010 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 12 C/ 3123 M
J. 22 C/ 3122 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-17
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 150 KT SE QUAD 2042Z.

 

[Brett Adair]

Originally posted by Carrie Halliday
I have a question.
There is a stationary front over N FL clear over to MS (if I saw that right). Is this going to affect Ivan? It has been there for several days and hasn't budged. I don't have a site to check for the trough, but last time I saw it on TWC it was TX to near New Orleans (I think).

Just want to extend a greetings to the board in my first post and hopefully some valuable information. The trough will eventually effect Ivan as he gets his act together and heads for the central Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical ridge that has built in strong will more so effect the storm in the short term. This storm looks to pull a Frances on us by taking the western side of the NHC forecast track due to the Global models underestimating the strength of the ridge as they have with the past few storms. I put my money on the UKMET, GFDL and the European right now.

 

[David Schuttler]

Originally posted by Austin Ivey
Most of you probably know how to access the official observing sites via the NOAA website but, so you don't have to search for it, here is the link to the international airport on Grand Cayman.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

The weather observations are still current. It will be interesting to see when it stops transmitting.

Looks like 9 pm is going to be last one.
Power outages have already occured

Electricity supplies have been interrupted across large sections of all three islands. On Grand Cayman, power is off in the eastern districts and several areas of George Town and West Bay

http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/2004/09/11/update2.htm

Cayman Radio reports 65mph winds around 12:00 cst

 

[David Wolfson]

This soul's Davis Vantage Pro is still reporting every ten minutes: http://www.weatherincayman.com/

 

[David Schuttler]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
This soul's Davis Vantage Pro is still reporting every ten minutes: http://www.weatherincayman.com/

Odd it doesn't show any rainfall though

 

[David Wolfson]

I think it was. However there has only been .01" since midnight. :wink:

... The 500Z IR shot shows the heavy stuff still holding off the west end of the island (where ZF1RC is) and some pretty major transformation/stress going on on the west side of the storm.

 

[David Schuttler]

Just thought about that ... 4+ storm total

 

[David Schuttler]

Cayman radio station has decided to leave someone at the station. At first they where going to just leave on auto till power knocks it off but. Should have a few live updates till power goes off.

Music has been so so ..... :roll:

http://www.vibefm.ky/

 

[David Wolfson]

The 500Z WV shot looks like someone dumped about 200 C-5 loads of DynoGel west of the eyewall. Heh. It is near Grand Cayman, so maybe it's a lot of hot paper.

 

[Zach Bailey]

latest vortex report (12/0547z) includes the following information:

pressure up to 915mb
the 20nm circular eyewall is weak to the south
good radar presentation
max FL winds (NW Quad) at 133kt

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

 

[David Wolfson]

I guess the 20nm eye just got too big and it's going through another eyewall replacement cycle. Quite amazing!

 

[Zach Bailey]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
The 500Z WV shot looks like someone dumped about 200 C-5 loads of DynoGel west of the eyewall. Heh. It is near Grand Cayman, so maybe it's a lot of hot paper.

Where'd you get the 0500Z shot? GOES eclipses at 0345Z...

 

[David Wolfson]

Yeah. That's what I thought, too.... 530Z now: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Zach Bailey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Zach Bailey)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-David Wolfson

The 500Z WV shot looks like someone dumped about 200 C-5 loads of DynoGel west of the eyewall. Heh. It is near Grand Cayman, so maybe it's a lot of hot paper.

Where'd you get the 0500Z shot? GOES eclipses at 0345Z...[/b]

This may not be the GOES12 satellite imagery... Just a guess.

EDIT: Upon further review... the filename given does say GOES10 ... If this is the case, then the sat imagery is from the western US / eastern Pacific GOES 10 satellite, which, per the chart on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/goes-eclipse.html , eclipses currently from 0800z-0950z and then from 1020-1030z. The satellite perspective of the Carribean from GOES10, however, is very "angled".