2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[B Ozanne]

Is it me or is this storm very far south?

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Yep, it is a bit unusually south. Seen that posted on some hurricane posts from NHC. Unless something dramatic happens, I believe that we may have our first western Gulf hurricane this season.
Bring it on Ivan, I have paid my homeowners insurance and need some SDS relief down here.
*not wanting devistation to my SE TX compadres, but want some action in my area because this year has been a bummer and I can't go to it, it must come to me right now*
Gonna be an interesting wait and see.

 

[David Wolfson]

Ivan's forecast track is looking more and more like Charlie II.

 

[B Ozanne]

Wow, Aruba and Curacao or under a hurricane watch. The current track takes Ivan over Jamaica and the western end of Cuba. Ivan could hold together fairly well over that terrain.

Does anybody have a link to the Charley path?

 

[David Wolfson]

2004 paths: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2004.asp

 

[Carrie Halliday]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...OAT2/VIS/20.jpg

Current GOES of Ivan.

 

[Zach Bailey]

Ivan's satellite presentation continues to improve. Cold cloud tops dominate the CDO, with temps in the western eyewall reaching -80C. There's also that huge wall of convection to the west which is rather impressive looking, along with very uniform upper-level outflow. It seems that the southern track is treating this storm well as it is feeding off of those very warm SSTs around northern South America.

The hurricane hunter vortex message from 07/1745z reported a central pressure of 956mb with peak flight level winds of 111kt in the NW quad, which would seem to correlate to around 100kt at the surface.

Also, in the most recent intermediate advisory from the NHC, they mentioned that winds have increased to around 120mph in a very small area near the eye, but the pressure was up 1mb to 957mb.

It should be interesting to see if (how much) Ivan strengthens if it makes it to the gulf.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Can someone post a web link to model outputs for the potential track of Ivan?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Austin Ivey
Can someone post a web link to model outputs for the potential track of Ivan?

Austin,
Forecast track maps are on pages 1 and 2 of this thread...

A good source for model output for tropical systems is at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ ...

 

[B Ozanne]

I see the Colombian goverment has issued a hurricane watch. Probably not something they do very often.

 

[Joel Wright]

It will most surely weaken when it starts to curve north. I'd be surprised if it was threat as a major hurricane to the US. Unless it gets to spend a lot of time in the gulf....

 

[Bryan Burkholder]

It is rather interesting how the models keep trying to curve Ivan north of it's current track as time goes along and as Ivan fervently defies model guidance! Maybe since hurricanes at this low of a latitude do not happen all too often, the models have a tougher time trying to categorize its movement. SST's in the Caribbean are a bit on the cooler side (compared to the Gulf of Mexico), but still warm enough to sustain Ivan. All it has to do now is shoot the gap to the Gulf of Mexico and not get too close to the Yucatan Peninsula or Cuba. A really strange forecast to look at for kickers is the 16 day GFS. hahaha.

What would really throw people for a loop would be if Ivan took a little southerly jog and hit South America. Very very strange. Leave it to Ivan!

 

[David Wolfson]

Bryan, a really big haha is the 18Z GFS just out. Ivan skirts the Florida east coast before looping off Hatteras, then slams straight up into New England.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
Bryan, a really big haha is the 18Z GFS just out. Ivan skirts the Florida east coast before looping off Hatteras, then slams straight up into New England.

The 12z GFS run is available in the 16-day full forecast at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ .. That run has Ivan hitting FL, curving out off the NC/SC coast, spending a couple of days out at sea, and then recurving to come back on land in SC...

There has been a trend to shift track forecast positions west with time. Historically, the UKMET and GFDL have done well with the longer-range forecasts (~96hrs+), though the GFDL did not handle Frances very well at all (neither did the GFS, for what it's worth). The UKMET did do quite well with Frances, though its forecast for Ivan seems too far north/east.

SST maps do show the some cooler water over the southern half of the Caribbean, which may limit maximum strength... Then again, it's almost guarenteed that there'll be some unforeseen forecast complication (shear, dry air entrainment, etc), so I don't know if it's worth that much effort to try to get this thing down...


EDIT: For what it's worth, a 22z recon report shows central pressure down to 950mb. An eye has emerged in the past few sat pics, and there is some _very_ cold cloud tops symmetrically surrounding the eye. It looks as if the storm is undergoing rapid intesification given it's improved satellite representation and the 6mb pressure drop in 3-6 hours. Interestingly, the storm has made a relatively abrupt turn to the northeast it appears...

 

[Thomas Loades]

Although an eye isn't visible in satellite pictures (not in the IR, anyway), the NHC has Ivan back up to a cat-4 — and an "extremely dangerous" on with 140-mph winds, at that!! :shock: The pressure has dropped to 946 mb! I can't see anything that could have made Ivan cough like this, though, or recover so quickly.