2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[David Wolfson]

Looking at the hi-rez loop ending 17:33Z, Ivan is definitely wobbling? west of north and loaded for bear. What an awesome presentation! The eye is 40 miles wide at the top at least, but seems to be trying to contract. Also, as noted, the CDO outflow seems most active in the northwest quadrant. It better make it's turn soon or east LA is going to have a rather bad night.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

17:45 utc… It would appear that Ivan will have a hard time hitting the next forecast point. If he continues on this path landfall could be western MS.

 

[Scott Taylor]

I agree... I thought we would've seen that turn to the N or NNE by now, but Ivan is stubbornly plowing NNW towards the LA/MS state border.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Ivan's intensity decrease is interesting... SST and upper-layer heat content is plenty warm, as the storm should be moving over the warm eddy in the northcentral Gulf...

Take a look at buoy data, though:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=300&time=3

While water temps are pretty warm, basically 80-85F, there was a lot of discussion about 86+ temps feeding Ivan at the time he was pounding Grand Cayman as cat5.

 

[B Ozanne]

Pressure has begun to fall again. Now down to 937mb. Recon reports just came out.

 

[David Wolfson]

The 1 p.m. CDT last-hour obs from BURL1 (at the tip of the thin peninsula poking southwest) just came in. The wind backed six degrees but is still 035 (at 55kt). Meanwhile 42040 (south of Dauphin Is. AL) direction is holding at about 045 (at about 50kt). Still a westward bias....

 

[Carrie Halliday]

It is reported that Ivan is moving North, but I sit and watch the loop over and over and over......I see W of North. You think Pass Christian is in the line of fire AGAIN?????
Do I smell another Camille? :idea:

 

[Carrie Halliday]

http://www.harrison.lib.ms.us/library_serv...mille_track.htm

Camille's path. A bit eeery.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Carrie, I was just doing some plotting, and had come up with the same landfall at Pass Christian, although a jog 50 miles west would be very bad for New Orleans.

 

[David Wolfson]

Camille was a very small storm. You could probably fit the whole CDO circulation inside Ivan's eye!

Another good comparison is Frederick: http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurri...anefrederic.htm
Still not quite the animal we're looking at now IMO.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Agree, I was seeing a Mississippi landfall too but figured I wasn't looking at enough data. Landfall anywhere in Mississippi puts it within 95 miles of New Orleans. I'm not sure if that's close enough to do any damage, especially being on the western side.

This is why I would hate to be a tropical storm forecaster... I can't even begin to imagine the pressure on these people regarding recurvature.

Tim

 

[Austin Ivey]

Buoy 42040 has now broken the record wave height ever measured in the Gulf of Mexico by a buoy. 42ft as of the last observation!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=42040

And this buoy is still quite a distance from the eye of Ivan.

The previous record wave height of 40ft occurred during Hurricane Lili.


Does anyone else think Ivan seems to be strengthening?? The eye seems much more symmetrical and rigid in the last few infrared shots.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

Bouy winds

Rules of thumb for converting 5 m bouy winds to 10 m winds:

-Multiply 5 m wind by 1.1 for 40 knot bouy wind.
-Multiply 5 m wind by 1.15 for 60 knot bouy wind.

*the factor may be even greater if sheltering behind giant waves is a factor.

P.S. Bouy # 42040 is the best location for a direct hit, if it survives.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

Mobile Bay storm surge

Surge height in Mobile bay will be hyper-sensitive to storm track.....

If W side of eyewall passes E of Mobile Bay, NE winds will back to N and then NW as storm makes landfall. This would actually blow water out of Mobile Bay and create "negative storm surge".

If E side of eyewall passes W of Mobile Bay, storm surge will be maximized. As storm makes landfall, NE winds will veer to E then SE then S, pushing water up Mobile Bay, creating worst storm surge scenario.

A direct hit with the eye moving up the bay would create a scenario much worse than a miss to the E but not as bad as a near miss to the W.

 

[Marc Grant]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Also, the flooding in New Orleans (if it happens) would not be like a flash flood. It would just turn into a big, filthy lake.

I may be wrong but I see it differently. If the ocean floods into NO and the lake floods into the downtown area, there will be one huge torrent of water from the flooding Mississippi and lake. The river will continue to make it's way to the ocean via the flooded areas.