2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Greg Campbell]

Latest sat image shows development a huge 'hole' in the Northern edge of the eye. Yet another eyewall cycle, perhaps more dramatic than most.

Despite it's recent jog to the North, I'm not 100% convinced it has run out of westerly travel, and am still mighty nervous for New Orleans. Still, my earlier 'prediction' (a bark-at-the-moon wild assed guess) in Tim's poll is looking promising:

<edited for precision!>
OK, Tim. It's gonna pass right over Pascagoula MS!

-Greg

 

[Glenn Rivers]

NDBC 42003

During the next 6 hours or so, Bouy 42003 should provide some excellent data even although it is well outside the E eyewall. This Bouy has wind sensors at 10 m instead of 5 m, so less problems with possible sheltering from huge waves.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...LOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Looks like Ivan has generated his new eye wall. Interesting to see what the 10pm CST report says.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

NDBC web page down

I can't get into the NDBC home page. Is the site down or is it just my server. Oh god please don't let the NDBC web page pack it in now of all times!

NDBC URL: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

 

[Austin Ivey]

Re: NDBC web page down

Originally posted by Glenn Rivers
I can't get into the NDBC home page. Is the site down or is it just my server. Oh god please don't let the NDBC web page pack it in now of all times!

NDBC URL:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Familiar with Murphy's law Glenn?

I am able to access the site now.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

Bingo. Thanks, Austin....all seems well again. The NDBC people say thay are based in Stennis Space Center, MS so I guess they will try to keep the site going until Wednesday night, then run like hell.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

I’m sure someone will have a better estimation of this, but I guessing the storm surge will begin to push on shore several hours before land fall of the eye. 3 – 4 hours? Assuming landfall of the eye about 3:00 – 4:00 am Thursday, that would have the beginning of the storm surge coincide with a high tide. High tide is set for ~ 11:00 pm CDT in LA and ~ 1:40 am CDT in AL.
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/sites_usgulf.html

This would mean the balance of the surge would push in against the ebb tide. Good news, as it would reduce the overall effect (surge + tide), but it would also create sharper waves. It should be noted that tides are relatively minimal in these areas (~1 ft), so I don’t believe it will make a huge difference, except for the sharper waves on the ebb. Current storm surge is projected to be 10 – 16 ft. This could be very devastating to the outer islands.

 

[mikegeukes]

Time is 1230 AM CDT or 130 AM EDT
Spiral band off the coast of western Florida.
Check out Tampa and Key West radars.

SPC has a mesoscale discussion about the activity.
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0409150448.acus11.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2212.html

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

More Tide Links:
NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/cgi-bin/pre...IDNEW&version=0
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/tide.shtml
http://www.srh.weather.gov/tlh/marine/#tides

United States
http://storms.nos.noaa.gov/maps.html
http://www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/tides04/tab...ab2ec4.html#108
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/sites_usgulf.html

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

HURRICANE IVAN STORM SURGE QUICK LOOK
Hurricane Ivan Storm Surge Quick Look will be updated daily at 1200 and 1800 EDT during hurricane event.
http://www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ivan.html

Mike

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Great info Mike. It would appear that the surge has already increased sea levels by about ~.75 – 1.0 ft.

It also looks like the eye was a little east of the last forecast point, but will need to really need to start turning north to make the next one.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by mikegeukes
HURRICANE IVAN STORM SURGE QUICK LOOK
Hurricane Ivan Storm Surge Quick Look will be updated daily at 1200 and 1800 EDT during hurricane event.

Bayou Labranche is the one to watch. Does anybody know how high the levees are in New Orleans?

 

[David Draun]

This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by David Draun
This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

The 13:00Z IR scan shows some convection exploding on the W/SW side of Ivan, with the eye becoming better defined... I am not an expert on hurricanes, but I am going to assume that this may just be an eyewall replacement cycle, or else it is strengthening :shock:

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Originally posted by David Draun
This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

:shock:

I heard this morning on the TV news that they really haven't any place to shelter folks there either. Makes me a little sad for those whom are invalid or no transportation. The exidus to Houston is in mass, I-10 is a solid stream of cars coming in from the E. Motels booked up and we have shelters open on the east side for those escaping Ivan.