2/8/09 FCST: TX, OK, KS

[nickgrillo]

I'm thinking Monday and Tuesday will have the greater risk for supercells -- once the main mid-level shortwave perturbation ejects and impinges the warm sector. Moisture should be greater on Monday and Tuesday, in response to cyclogenesis at the surface and the associated favorable south/southeasterly low-level parcel trajectories advecting richer moisture northward. Fast deep-layer flow and strong directional shear throughout the troposphere will be very favorable for organized kinematically-driven events featuring fast-moving supercells.

My guess would be Sunday being the start of a 3-day severe weather sequence, with Monday and Tuesday being the "main days" further east from eastern KS southward into eastern TX, then eastward along the warm front into Missouri and Illinois and points southward. Obviously too early to pinpoint a specific area, but it's safe to say there will be at least two organized severe weather days next week.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

IMO everyone is a little overly hyped for this setup, sure looks like it could produce some severe weather and maybe even a lot of it over climatologically favored areas esp middle of next week, but much of it looks to be over questionable chase territory, moving at warp speed, and this type of setup and all of its dynamics screams squall line with embedded sups IMO. My only hope for seeing anything worth chasing is maybe some CC action across the plains. 12Z MON is some what interesting on this mornings 12Z GFS, if everything would happen to come together just right and it slowed down and gave me that scenario at peak heating 18Z MON, I'd say there would be an outside chance at some CC action...

No doubt these systems will be a major rain maker for a lot of folks; I personally am interested in watching how this scenario plays out around here. The ice jam prone rivers are covered with thick ice, warm air ahead of the system this week should weaken that ice, then if we see a lot of heavy rain, there could be some real ice issues on local rivers. i.e. the Platte, Loup and Elkhorn, among others....

 

[Scott Roberts]

Going solely on a quick scan of the GFS at this point, but I think it'll be too far west for my taste Sunday. I like the confluence shown in the 850 streamlines at 108 hours (Sunday night, 6pm), but I'm not to keen on a two-hour one-way drive at this point. (SDS notwithstanding).

 

[Shane Adams]

The best thing about Sunday IMO is it's still 4 days away, which means the models have time to trend towards a more positive chasing scenario...really can't get much worse attm. Typical February high shear/low (no) instability kinda day. Winds are largely unidirectional and fast. CAPE is non-existent. I suppose if a pocket of higher CAPE could develop in the southern regions of this target in C Texas, there might be a shot early if a storm can stay isolated long enough before becoming part of a line. The veered h85s to just east of due south lend a sliver of hope for something ahead of the line or something early on.

Experience tells me Sunday is a waste of time, if you believe the models. However models aside, I'm a firm believer in the weather I've been observing in the Plains the past several weeks, and 2-3 days' of south winds don't have me convinced a few months' worth of arid dryout can be overcome in time. It's really not even the moisture so much for me (I'll definitely gamble on 11th-hour return if everything else is there), but there's just no instability.

I know I harp on this same thing at this same time every year, and then a Feb 5 happens, but I'm just not wired to chase shear.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

here in eastern nebraska the local wfo has already mentioned next weeks storm. normally this time of year i am excited for the poss of a snowstorm, but instead theres a chance of mini supercells at the beginning of february i will definitely be out if the risk is close enough. the short days and expected speed of the storms won't make it worth it(for me) to go too far from home!

AT THE
SURFACE...WARM FRONT ALONG THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER ON SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. BOTH
MODELS LIFT THE LOW OUT OF NEBRASKA AT 18Z INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY 00Z TUE WHILE IT OCCLUDES. AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL...BUT DYNAMICS WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WITH UPPER AND LOWER LOWS STACKED AND DRY
PUNCH LIFTING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
MONDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINI SUPERCELLS.

Wow surprised they went as far as mentioning that. I just caught on to it for the first time on last nights run, that his had the potential at a CC mini sup type setup *IF* many factors come together just right, as I mentioned in the W/C topic. As it is now, I'm not buying into it, for two big reasons, well two other than climatology; first of all timing, based on the last couple GFS runs, the timing does not favor this CC setup, to slow to make Sunday the day, and by peak heating Monday the system has already rocketed off North-East. The second limiting factor is the question of rather or not we could see any clearing to destabilize the LL's. That being said the potential is there, if many things come together, particularly timing and then subsequently any destabilization that can occur in the dry slot, there is an outside shot…

 

[Dick McGowan]

Wow surprised they went as far as mentioning that. I just caught on to it for the first time on last nights run, that his had the potential at a CC mini sup type setup *IF* many factors come together just right, as I mentioned in the W/C topic.

I think this is why they mentioned it lol. Clearing won't be a problem in a true cold-core setup as usually there is a dry-air intrusion that wraps around to the NE from the SW part of the surface low. We're talking a different date here so maybe someone should start a Monday thread. Either way, I'll likely be chasing both days, just because I have the days off, gas is cheap and I have no life.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

As it is now, it certainly meets a majority of the CC "qualifications" and some of them by an impressive amount, the stacked nature and the super cold upperlevles. Some INSANE windshear SE of that Low 50kts at 925mb, GFS has like 80/60kt 500/850mb crossovers!! However, I'm like (0 - who knows) when it comes to CC setups, in fact I can't stand them, and always end up cursing by the end of the day. Going to have to go back and compare this to 2/24/07 that’s the last CC day in Feb. I can recall, did yield some decent storms and many funnels. I’ll likely be the pessimist up until the day just because I suck at CC setups, then I’ll end up chasing it…

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

As of right now I was hoping for MAYBE some cold core action, but at this point I am a bit less excited if even excited at all. However the setup on Dec 26 I began following from about 180 hrs out and between 156 hrs to 72 hrs the setup went from looking insane before 156 hrs to kind of what we are seeing now to a decent looking setup again by 72 hrs on the NAM, will this happen again? I don't know but even though Dec 26 wasn't the big day it seemed it could've been I am not throwing in the towel until the morning of as cold core setups are hard to predict until about the night before or morning of.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I plan to chase on Sunday even though it looks like the best prizes out there will be hail and lightning. Haven't chased since Dec. 26th and it is time to get away from Wichita for a day. If moisture return was expected to be better than the models are currently forecasting, then I would lean towards a small tornado threat developing. I just don't see that right now with meager moisture return. The mid-week wave is another one to watch. Looks like it wants to be more of a true cold-core set-up compared to this one. Who knows, maybe the models will swing back into play on that senerio with thisf first wave, but we need some extra moisture to help boost the 0-3km CAPE values! I will take the negatively tilted trough over the boring weather we have had over the past two months. We need some good rains to prep for May. Those wheat fields need to get nice and green!

 

[Jason Bolt]

SGF also mentioning this system already in the AFD and HWO. Actually, Sunday through Tuesday is mentioned. Mike brought up how arid western Kansas has been this year and while the Eastern part of the state is probably below average its still wet around here from the snow/ice. If the gulf can open up I think we may see something in SWMO/NWAR area. Sunday, I'll be in Wichita early if for nothing else than a practice chase.

 

[jshields]

Wow surprised they went as far as mentioning that. I just caught on to it for the first time on last nights run, that his had the potential at a CC mini sup type setup *IF* many factors come together just right, as I mentioned in the W/C topic. As it is now, I'm not buying into it, for two big reasons, well two other than climatology; first of all timing, based on the last couple GFS runs, the timing does not favor this CC setup, to slow to make Sunday the day, and by peak heating Monday the system has already rocketed off North-East. The second limiting factor is the question of rather or not we could see any clearing to destabilize the LL's. That being said the potential is there, if many things come together, particularly timing and then subsequently any destabilization that can occur in the dry slot, there is an outside shot…

anyone(mods) have any idea where my original message went that was quoted in this reply by dustin?!!

also, the 18Z run of the GFS seems to be a little slower than even mentioned in the local wfd or the 12Z run of the GFS. that would be better for a mini sup chance on monday(at least here in eastern nebraska)

 

[Chris Lott]

It looks like some moisture might be on the return into Texas starting today, as a S-SE flow starts to return pulling in some promise for Sunday. It's still a way out to tell but the models still don't show much moisture, and no CAPE for this setup. Timing is also still an issue as this could turn into a late night event with squall line written all over it. Hopefully over the next few days we will get some good moisture return ahead of the advancing shortwave to possibly squeeze some discrete cells out of this. It's looking more and more to me that Tues. could possibly be a bigger day with better moisture in place. Still lots of time to work with.

 

[Ted Keller]

Strict model interpretation does pin this as a low instability, strong shear and most likley nocturnal event on the high plains.

Of course, this first wave is likely going to "prime the pump" for the storm behind it.

Sunday is my only available day to chase and based on what I'm seeing now, it doesn't look likely. We'll see...

 

[Chris Lott]

I'm starting to like Tuesday more and more. It looks like storm motions will still be fast, but GFS now shows a tongue of near 1500 j/kg CAPE from Central TX to the Red River as the next shortwave punches across the region. I will be off on Tuesday also so this will likely be the day I chase. Still a lot can change though.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I was about to post about Tuesday as well....while Sunday looks like absolute junk, Tuesday could be manageable. The GFS has been slowing the system down somewhat to bring it more in line with the slower ECMWF. Not sure if it'll amount to a chase in western OK/TX, but I'd love for the slower trend to continue. Wouldn't mind it taking a full extra day either