2/5/08-2/6/08 WINTER STORM NOW: KS,MO,IA,NE,IL,WI,MN,IN,MI,OH

[cstrunk]

I love reading you guys' enthusiasm about the strength of this snowstorm, but I really think the convection has harmed my chances here in St. Joseph of getting 10+ out of this storm. I've been watching the snow in KS get organized for an eternity now (like 5 hours, lol), and just recently has it been making it into the St. Joseph area. Every time it looks like it's ready to build in it falls apart again and builds up in KS. I'm waiting to see if and when it will build up and stay strong long enough here to give us the really big snows before it is out of here (which will still be a while). I think other places will have a better chance at 9-10+ rather than St. Joseph. I guess I should just go to sleep and see what happens in the morning...

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

About 30 in Lansing with freezing drizzle. Picked up about 1" of snow/sleet/freezing rain overnight-very sloppy mess.

Yesterdays NAM runs obviously bombed again with QPF totals only a fraction of what verified. The GFS didn't do much better. (Make mental note-the next High Risk day...count on convection messing up the moisture return into the cold air!!)

Still..the 2nd round of the storm looks to be quite respectable for this area but may now focus the heaviest snow just North of the main Southern Lower MI cities.

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif

 

[David Draun]

Still 10-12 inches with local amounts of 14 expected for the Chicago Metro, especially northern sections. NIU is closed today, so I'm happy. Radar is showing some nice convective banding of snow just exploding to the south and pushing north. I wonder if there will be some thunder and lightning with all this.

 

[Mark Manchester]

Snow is finally winding down here in far NW MO and we have roughly 6-7 inches on the ground, with reports of 8-9 inches roughly 30 miles south of here in northern Holt Co. Tapered off to flurries now with no additional accumulation expected.

 

[rdale]

Yesterdays NAM runs obviously bombed again with QPF totals only a fraction of what verified. The GFS didn't do much better. (Make mental note-the next High Risk day...count on convection messing up the moisture return into the cold air!!)

I'm not sure that convection down south was the cause... The NAM has been USELESS this winter, and it still has 16" coming today with no southern convection (NWS is forecasting up to 14" for Lansing) yet I'm calling for at the most 8 inches.

 

[Joel Wright]

5.8" so far here in E-town. We've received 3.6" here since 6am, so it's finally really beginning to come down. We had sleet mixing in as late as 6:30am this morning. I should mention that the snowfall so far has averaged less than 10:1 snow to water ratio. It's a classic "white cement" dumping.

Some areas northwest of me in eastern IA have already picked up 8-11" with snow still falling. A spotter in Cedar Rapids recently reported 11.8" down.

So far the thundersnow hasn't really materialized. I've only heard of one report so far just west of the QC about 3hrs ago. The snow is still somewhat convective in nature, just not quite vigorous enough to break into the thunder producing threshold I guess.

With almost 6" here and another 5-6hrs of snow on the way and snow to water ratios climbing higher I'm still expecting 8-10".

 

[Robert Dewey]

Judging by radar and 12Z models, NWS doesn't seem to bring the heavier accumulations far enough south.

FWIW... the NAM was only off by 2-3 inches for storm total snow across KS. So while the 15 inches it outputs for LAN might be a bit high, a foot wouldn't surprise me.

 

[rdale]

A foot would BLOW me away in Lansing... I'm thinking 6 inches at the most.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Looks like an intense band should pivot through the Lansing area around Noon.

The very rapid intrusion of dry air in Northern Michigan is interesting. I suspect it will limit the heavy snow to a rather narrow corridor.

 

[Joel Wright]

Holy crap guys. It's really been coming down (and still is). 7.7" as of 10:30am. That's almost 2" in less than an hour. A band of 30dbz+ has essentially been stalled right on top of me for the last hour and a half. No thunder though unfortunately.

I just talked to a buddy just 25 miles west of me out in the QC and he said it's been barely snowing for quite awhile. These bands of snow are apparently pretty intense, but in between them the snow is very light. There's definitely going to be some variation in snowfall amounts just across a county.

Many locations are in the double-digits for snowfall just north and west of me, and still snowing rather feverishly. The previous forecasts of 10-14"+ will verify.

Something to think about if you're out east...

 

[Robert Dewey]

A foot would BLOW me away in Lansing... I'm thinking 6 inches at the most.

What's your reasoning for such a low amount?

The radar presentation is looking awesome at the moment...

 

[Joel Wright]

Stuck in a lull at the moment. Only picked up 0.1" in the last 50 minutes. Definitely makes a difference when you're between bands. Went from 2"+/hr snowfall rates to 0.1"/hr lol.

Heavy banded snows continue across much of northern IL. Dekalb is about to get rocked over the next few hours. Chicago before too much longer as well. Further west out towards the Mississippi, the snow's becoming more stratified. This will rotate southeast into northwest IL over the next few hours bringing more consistent snowfall. Amounts with this will be somewhat less dramatic compared to the heavy bands of snow, but snow in this area will be more steady.

I'm thinking someone up near Galena or Freeport IL will come in with a 15-18" amount. That area has been stuck under heavy snow all morning.

So as of 11:20am, 7.8" here in Erie...

 

[Joel Wright]

Calamus in Clinton County IA reports 14.0" of snow, and still snowing heavily...

 

[Robert Dewey]

it's snowing quite hard here at the moment... Judging by the regional radar and WV loop, I'm thinking we'll stay out of the dry slot.

Some of these bands look convective in nature as well.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

We have been getting light to Moderate to occ. Heavy Snow this a.m So far we have about 5" since last night.The area is rotating around the region so it wont end soon..Will go with about 10" max here though no doubt some areas even close by obviously will receive more..Definitely makes a huge difference in amounts when you are in the heavy band of snow and how long you are under them.