2/3/2006 NOW: Southern US

Well we'll see who pays attention today but there seems to be a lot more potential for interest among the posters...I KNOW we have some Bama people. Anyways severe cells went up in Mississippi so I figured it was time for one of these.

K for my analysis here I used the 330 PM CST volume scan from Jackson MS. Most interesting cell at the moment is about 20 miles north-northeast of the radar site over Southeast Madison County MS. Pronounced inflow notch closed in a bit on the new scan (post 330 pm) but still some rotation evident on most of the low-level slices. Definately rotating aloft. Got 100% POSH and POH on it with max hail size of 1.75". The surrounding environment seems to make it one of the most intriguing for a possible tornado. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that it is very near the low which means that it should be tracking into a region of favorably backed surface wind vectors shortly which will contribute to a rise in effective SRH of over 200 m2/s2. Despite realized CAPE around 500-800 j/kg storms appear to be surface based and in a region of fairly steep low-level lapse rates. This storm definately deserves watching.

The storm to the north across Attala County is a much more stable environment with low level lapse rates approaching moist adiabatic and MUCAPE barely reaching 300 j/kg. Nevertheless, shear should continue to compensate and provide for some organized cells with large hail being the primary threat.

The storm to the south moving from Copiah to Simpson County is also surface based but appears to be more linearly organized and enjoying CAPE values approaching the quadruple digits (j/kg). As a result it appears to have a much stronger updraft and be lofting a hail core much higher (67dbZ over 10000 feet). Looks to be more of a hail and wind threat, although there has been persistent mid-level rotation in all storms.

All of the cells are really oriented horribly (storm motion with respect to the radar station) to get any kind of true velocity readings.

Bottom line is to probably watch the central storm right now for any tornado as it continues to exhibit an inflow notch on 0.5º reflectivity and weaknesses in the reflectivity aloft...which may indicate some sort of BWER trying to form.
 
Wow lots of activity today. Storms in Mississippi still going strong, a ton of cells over the NE Gulf streaming northeast into Florida Panhandle and N Florida and an isolated cluster of interesting looking cells looking to make it onshore south of Naples.

All areas are under a SWOMCD at the moment. Lots of areas for potential severe weather but I still like MS/AL for any isolated tornadoes given the proximity to the strongest upper level support and the surface low.
 
Back
Top