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2/23/05 NOW: TX/LA

I'm going to start this thread as a recent MD has been issued and a couple severe thunderstorm warnings are already in effect.
A good line of thunderstorms has already set up from near Shreveport, LA to the southwest near Bryan, TX. The northern cells will probably have the best threat for hail, and the southern cells are looking the best for tornadic activity. If you are nearby, I would probably set up near the Montgomery Co area, as this should be near the southern edge and have the best chance of seeing some tornadic activity. Without getting yourself into the bow echoes... For longer travelers I would be looking at southern LA for a target area as the storms will likely begin to intensify and some supercells may develop ahead of this line as well.

Overall good surfece heating has begun and CAPE is up aabove 1000 J/kg over much of the south. Surface winds should be on the increase as well as upper level winds, a good chase day might be in store for southern chasers.
 
Looking at the reflectivity loop out of KSHV, a good bow echo may be setting up over Cherokee county, TX as it moves off to the east. Showing great signs of orginization as it has been moving over the last hour. Wouldn't be to surprised to see a warning out within the hour.
 
Well two areas have begun to stand out in my mind for a possible chase. Right now the best spot I believe is going to be in Texas in which storms have just begun to initialize, these storms will most likely have the best threat of tornadic activity. Storms onging in LA/MS have become more bow echo oriented so I don't think any tornadic activity will happen. A current supercell is beginngin to take shape over parts of TX, just to the southeast of Fort Stockton, TX. SPC is looking at a WW with their MD for parts of TX... Would watch the development of more supercells in this area and make a good target for central TX.
 
Looks like the end of a line of sever storms is begining to show a bit of rotation, but its rapidly heading out to sea so no clue if it'll put down anything before leaving land.
 
The one south of Ozona is continuing to head east and could be putting out hail as large as 1inch but beginnin gto die down some. I would say the 2 near Fredricksburg are growing fast, tops are now above 36,000 and they are possibly producing 3/4 inch hail at this time. Movement of northern cell is NNE at 12 knots and the 2nd is ESE at 8 knots. Not much yet but I get excited about any activity this time of year.
 
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