Dennis Dennison
Currently in Arizona a line of heavy storms is just west of Phoenix, with speed of storms moving W -> E at 60+. Defiantly going to be some weather here very soon.
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Chris Carter
EF3
Stronger snow returns showing up on Goodland, Hastings and North Platte radars.
Radar estimates out of Topeka and KC put a good swath of 3" from St. Joseph back down towards Wichita, including Leavenworth, Manhattan, and Hutchinson, and points between. Another swath of snow along the KS/NE border is around 3" as well, from Webber, Kansas ENE to Nemaha, Nebraska.
Radar estimates out of Topeka and KC put a good swath of 3" from St. Joseph back down towards Wichita, including Leavenworth, Manhattan, and Hutchinson, and points between. Another swath of snow along the KS/NE border is around 3" as well, from Webber, Kansas ENE to Nemaha, Nebraska.
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Brody Flavin
EF0
Just went outside my work here in Newton, KS and measured. We have about 3" on the ground.
Bonnie Frank
EF0
Well it finally arrived in Hays, Id say we have about 4 inches and its still snowing. Not big flakes but a whole lot of little ones.
Camera out on I-70
Camera out on I-70
Josh Richardson
EF4
Most of us in Iowa have now been upgraded to a blizzard warning now, here in Northern IA probably looking at about 10-12 inches plus the wind.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...s+SSW+Mason+City+IA&product1=Blizzard+Warning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...s+SSW+Mason+City+IA&product1=Blizzard+Warning
Robert Dewey
EF5
12z NAM, GFS, RGEM, and GGEM) all falling in line in terms of strength (970mb, 973mb, 968mb, and 972mb respectively) between 12z 12/09 0z 12/10 over lower MI / Lake Huron. In fact models drop pressure 10mb in 6hrs (17mb in 12hrs on the NAM) once the SFC low passes over Lake Michigan. At this point, I expect the SFC low to slow with a NNE track towards Alpena MI... or slightly NW.
With that said, I think the 12z NAM should be used for the wind forecast across the Great Lakes region. BUFKIT is now showing 60-70knts at the top of the mixing layer as potential T comes crashing down... with an average of 45-50knts. This slightly precedes the best pressure rise of 6mb in 3hrs, and coincides with the strongest PGF / pressure gradient force. I suspect the strongest winds - widespread high wind warning criteria - will occur in an envelope of 100-250 miles SE of the SFC low. Areas closer to the center will experience the weaker circulation flow.
To top it off, NAM shows 4-5 inches of snow falling after the occluded front screams through SE MI... with Lansing MI showing upwards of 5-7 inches. GFS is a bit more conservative, but still in the 3-5 inch range. Combined with the intense SFC winds... this could make for quite an interesting event.
With that said, I think the 12z NAM should be used for the wind forecast across the Great Lakes region. BUFKIT is now showing 60-70knts at the top of the mixing layer as potential T comes crashing down... with an average of 45-50knts. This slightly precedes the best pressure rise of 6mb in 3hrs, and coincides with the strongest PGF / pressure gradient force. I suspect the strongest winds - widespread high wind warning criteria - will occur in an envelope of 100-250 miles SE of the SFC low. Areas closer to the center will experience the weaker circulation flow.
To top it off, NAM shows 4-5 inches of snow falling after the occluded front screams through SE MI... with Lansing MI showing upwards of 5-7 inches. GFS is a bit more conservative, but still in the 3-5 inch range. Combined with the intense SFC winds... this could make for quite an interesting event.
cstrunk
EF3
It's been snowing lightly in Ames, IA since very early this morning. Within the past hour or so, it has begun to pick up a bit, as the more intense area of snow is expanding north and east into Iowa. It looks like the snow shield is beginning to set up nicely and many of these predicted totals will likely verify.
10-14" expected here. Blizzard warning issued.
10-14" expected here. Blizzard warning issued.
josh_4184
I live in Jackson, which is about 30 south of lansing, it will be interesting to see how much moisture is left on the back side of the low once the warm front moves through and the winds change out of the North East. Normally being that far inland lake affect snow is minimal but I would mind about 5-6 inches if possible not holding my breath. GFS is stil showing a possible 5-8 inches total by Saturday for my area.
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
Latley it seems like most models tend over estimate espically in my case where rain is going to come into play and kill most of the accumulation that falls before the warm front reaches.
Robert Dewey
EF5
What's really making me uneasy is the HIRESW NMM runs. That model keeps insisting that the thermal profile for areas along and north of a Lansing MI to Pontiac MI actually cool as the heaviest precipitation moves through (down to -3C in places). In fact, it looks like the profile doesn't warm sufficiently for pure rain until after 12z tomorrow; after an inch or better of QPF has fallen.
I'm not sure if this is related to the precipitation intensity and cooling due to melting, or what's going on with that model.
The ARW doesn't exhibit this cooling trend, but it's also a lot deeper - 960-965mb.
Mark Sefried
EF2
If this event was occuring on a friday night, I may have actually considered chasing this. If I were to pick a town attm I would choose Waterloo, IA as getting the worst of it as far as the blizzard conditions/ heavy snow is concerned. Both the NAM and GFS show that area just NW of the 850 mb low. With all of that open terrain there on the outskirts of town, it would be fun to find a motel just on the edge of town and see how interesting it gets. I imagine that a state of emergency may be declared for IA,WI, and nothern lower MI. Everything has turned to rain here just east of Peoria. I see that Mike Brady and Brandon Sullivan are chasing this event. Anyone else?
Robert Dewey
EF5
I see IWX downgraded the high wind watch to an advisory... Not sure the reasoning for that, especially since both the NAM and GFS have are in agreement with gust potential over warning criteria... particularly across the NE portion of the forecast area. Then again, they could be playing it by ear...
jshields
blizzard warnings now out through all of eastern nebraska, 10-14" of total snow. the 18Z ruc shows another .8" qpf yet though, so another 10-12" is possible!
The following CTV feeds are live as of right now. We expect many more in the next few hours for those of you interested in armchair snow chasing & severe wx.
Randy Cooper http://bit.ly/2kHom2
Brandon Sullivan http://bit.ly/5jl3UZ
Mike Brady http://bit.ly/5sL9a7
Scott Bennett http://bit.ly/6wDWTy
Travis Carlson http://bit.ly/6Cuyuy
For you severe weather folks, down south we have:
John Sibley http://bit.ly/QxcH7
James Kinkaid http://bit.ly/6YLejT
Randy Cooper http://bit.ly/2kHom2
Brandon Sullivan http://bit.ly/5jl3UZ
Mike Brady http://bit.ly/5sL9a7
Scott Bennett http://bit.ly/6wDWTy
Travis Carlson http://bit.ly/6Cuyuy
For you severe weather folks, down south we have:
John Sibley http://bit.ly/QxcH7
James Kinkaid http://bit.ly/6YLejT
Chris Heater
EF3
I thought the storm was going to be in the Midwest by now? From what I'm seeing its not quite out of Colorado yet. I think Chris may be right...we may see the heavier snow shift south. We'll all just have to wait and see though. Let the waiting game begin
Mike Hollingshead
Thems some isobars packed in there. RUC drops it from 990 to 984 in only 3 hours. Radar is looking pretty pathetic around here. Looking at the satellite loop you'd think any day now it would light up and fill in the holes that are out there. Those roll clouds racing across OK/TX right now are pretty impressive, speedwise.
Not a ton of snow here, but plenty to keep my car from moving(rear wheel drive). Went to get food uptown and thought about digging out and trying to take it, but said screw it, easier to walk and my feet won't get stuck.
Looking at those packed isobars, the snow already in place and what is to come, I think a little foot chase in town might be in order later tonight. This would probably make for an interesting live stream, given a helmet cam, etc. Hmmm. Then again, sub-60mph gusts are pretty dang boring.
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